Our Model’s Favorite Week 10 NFL Bets
Our Model’s Favorite Week 10 NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 10 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five- and four-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
New Orleans Saints (-9.5) Spread vs. San Francisco 49ers
The first five-star prediction of the SportsGrid model is taking the New Orleans Saints to cover the 9.5 points they’re laying to the San Francisco 49ers this weekend. These are two teams trending in opposite directions. Injuries have dashed the Niners’ hopes of building on the momentum from a 2019 Super Bowl appearance; the team has been snakebitten by injury this season. Arguably no other team has had more injuries to impact players: quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, All-Pro tight end George Kittle, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, edge Nick Bosa, their entire running back room, and cornerback Richard Sherman all have been held out of games with injuries or COVID issues.
This is shaping up to be a lost season for the Niners. They will be starting backup quarterback Nick Mullens against a Saints team which is trending in the opposite direction: Drew Brees and the Saints dog walked the Buccaneers on last week’s Sunday Night Football game, their offensive line is all intact, Alvin Kamara has looked like the best running back in football, and both of their starting receivers, Mike Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are back. Their entire offense is at full strength and edge rusher Cam Jordan led a defense that played with their hair on fire against Tom Brady and should look to build on that momentum against Mullens. This has blowout written all over it.
New England Patriots (+7) vs. Baltimore Ravens
The first four-star prediction of the SportsGrid model is taking the New England Patriots getting seven points against the Baltimore Ravens. This can be seen as a mismatch of motivations and personnel. The Patriots are in a “buy-low” situation if they’ve ever been in one: they need to win to stay in the playoff hunt, they just squeaked by the Jets on Monday Night Football, Cam Newton looked healthy enough to quarterback, and their formidable secondary led by Stephon Gilmore and the McCourty twins should be able to take away the two main pass catchers for Jackson: tight end Mark Andrews and wide receiver Marquise Brown.
The Ravens rushing attack is still quite lethal, but the Patriots have played at one of the slowest paces in the league this year. This game will likely be a LOT of running and defense, as the projected point total of 43 implies a low scoring game. Baltimore’s strength, their passing defense, will likely be less effective against Bill Belichick, Cam Newton, and company playing at a snail’s pace to keep Jackson off the field. Jackson’s passing game usage has been just league average this year as well. Seven points is a whole lot to lay for the Ravens given everything I just outlined, in addition to having Jackson’s franchise left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, go down for the season with an injury last week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+6)
The other four-star prediction of the SportsGrid model is taking the Carolina Panthers to cover six points at home against Tampa Bay. This goes against the basic theory of not going against an angry, embarrassed Tom Brady. And after getting embarrassed by one NFC South rival in prime time, Brady will likely unleash hell on Carolina. That’s all well and good, but it still might be a bit too high of a line. Would you believe me if I told you the Panthers have only lost one game by more than eight points this year? That game was against Tampa Bay in Week 2 by 14 points? Those things are both true.
The Panthers have played inspired football under first-year coach Matt Rhule and to be a six-point underdog at home implies that the Panthers would be a nine-point underdog in Tampa Bay (most bookmakers are making home field advantage roughly 1.5 points this year to account for COVID). The Week 2 line was Tampa Bay -8.5 at home, and I think it’s fair to say the Panthers have exceeded anyone’s expectations of what they were supposed to be so far this season: Talking heads had them at 3-13 and “tanking for Trevor.” Instead, they’re 3-6 and can likely finish out for a 6-10 or 7-9 season in one where it was supposed to be a rebuild. The Buccaneers have played at expectation, so there is line value here on taking the Panthers. Panthers +6.0 is the play.