Our Model’s Favorite Week 11 NFL Bets
Our Model’s Favorite Week 11 NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 11 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five- and four-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
Seattle Seahawks (-3) Spread vs. Arizona Cardinals:
The Cardinals head to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team that is off a loss and looking to avenge a loss earlier in the season of a game that went to overtime in the desert. Both teams are 6-3, and the winner will take sole possession of first place in the NFC West. The teams don’t look vastly different than they did three weeks ago: Kyler Murray is still rushing for an obscene amount of yards and throwing to Hopkins and Christian Kirk a whole lot while mixing in some traditional rushing plays with Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds, while Russell “Mr. Unliiiiimmmmiiiteedd” Wilson continues to pace the league in passing touchdowns and is making Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf look like absolute freak wide receivers. Both defenses remain…..bad. There’s not a whole lot to say on the defensive side of the ball for either team. The game goes to Seattle now and Russ in primetime, at home in Seattle is something most smart handicappers consider not betting against. All that said, Kyler is starting to get some MVP consideration himself, so the game should be one of the most exciting ones of the week.
Carolina Panthers (-125) Money Line vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions snuck by the Washington Football Team via field goal last week and have no business being 4-5. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been banged up, and his star wide receiver Kenny Golladay has been out with an injury, in addition to rising tight end TJ Hockenson having a toe issue keeping him from getting full practices in. Their defense remains a sieve and clearly misses star cornerback Darius Slay, now in Philadelphia.
The Panthers should not be only -125 against the Lions. Even while missing Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers were a 3-4 team who ran into a desperate Falcons team, the Chiefs, and the Bucs (with an angry Tom Brady quarterbacking them). They’ve only lost two games by more than eight points this season, and both were to the Buccaneers, which, given how young the Panthers’ defense is, we can almost excuse.
They’re closer to a .500 team than their .300 record shows now. They should win by 6-9 points here even if McCaffrey is out: quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has played admirably, and wide receiver duo DJ Moore and Robby Anderson look to be one of the best duos in the league, in addition to Mike Davis filling in for McCaffrey until he’s back. Let’s just also consider last here: who do you trust more with a week to prepare? Up-and-comer Matt Rhule or Matt Patricia, who’s likely on his last legs as an NFL coach?
Philadelphia Eagles-Cleveland Browns Over 45.5 Points
The score of an average NFL game has oscillated between the high 40s and the low 50s this year, and we’re supposed to believe that this game can’t end 24-23? The Eagles are finally healthy at the skill positions: tight end Dallas Goedert is off IR and fully healthy, the same for rookie wide receiver Jalen Raegor and sophomore breakout running back Miles Sanders. In the meantime, the team found a gem in Travis Fulgham, and former AAF quarterback Greg Ward continues to be an ancillary piece filling in admirably as a No.3 wide receiver. Their defense is still very beatable through the air with the exception of cornerback Darius Slay. The other pieces of the secondary still are prone to giving up a lot of points.
The Browns are a mirror image defensively: their rushing defense is good, but their passing defense, outside of corner Denzel Ward, is leaky. They built their team with a strong front-seven and deemphasized coverage linebackers and safeties: this should be a big Dallas Goedert game for Philadelphia. The Browns should continue what makes them tick, especially now that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are both healthy and providing the best running back tandem in the NFL, setting up play-action for quarterback Baker Mayfield. Tight end Austin Hooper is back from injury and wide receiver Jarvis Landry has played really well as taking over as the alpha wide receiver from his best friend Odell Beckham. This game should get into the low-50s pretty easily.