Our Model’s Favorite Week 11 NFL Player Props
Our Model’s Favorite Week 11 NFL Player Props
With a limited offseason program, it was always fair to assume that it would take rookie receivers a little longer than usual to get their feet wet in the NFL this season.
The past few weeks have seen a few breakout pass-catchers emerge across the league; the SportsGrid props model likes two of them this week. It also is fading one of the three heavy favorites for the MVP award while believing in one of the league’s most consistent rushers.
Let’s find the value in the world of NFL player props for Week 11:
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
Going on the road to face one of the NFL’s best defenses is a recipe for an average performance from one of the league’s best quarterbacks.
Rodgers’ FanDuel total for passing yards is 278.50 this week in Indianapolis, but SportsGrid projects him for 230.75.
The Colts are coming off an awe-inspiring Thursday Night Football performance that saw them allow just 147 passing yards to Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. They held Lamar Jackson to just 170 yards in the week before that, although both Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow threw for more than 300 yards in the two previous weeks to the loss to Baltimore.
Rodgers has gone over this total in four straight games, but it wasn’t against a murderer’s row of defenses: Houston, Minnesota, San Francisco (ravaged by COVID-19 contact tracing and injuries), and the Jaguars. The Colts are on a different level from those teams and will be able to get more pressure on Rodgers than most other teams.
Browns RB Nick Chubb
In what will be his second game back from injury, Chubb’s rushing yards total is 70.50 on FanDuel. SportsGrid’s model is high on him this week against a stout Eagles front-seven, projecting him for 91.59 yards on the ground.
This will be Chubb’s fifth full game of the season. He has rushed for over 100 yards in three of the first four games. There is no shortage of production or touches for either Chubb or Kareem Hunt in the Browns’ backfield. Especially without Odell Beckham Jr., the duo is the best thing Cleveland has going for it on offense.
The Eagles’ front seven is highly touted, and rightfully so given its success in recent years. This season, though, the Eagles are allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game in the NFL at 133 yards. The Browns are likely to go well over that based on their efficiency this season.
Don’t worry about Hunt eating into Chubb’s production. They both will get enough, and Chubb is the No. 1 runner in key situations, like last week when he broke fantasy owners’ hearts late against the Texans.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
Coming off a massive Week 10 performance against one of the NFL’s premier defenses in less-than-ideal conditions, Jefferson’s FanDuel total on receiving yards is 62.50. SportsGrid’s model has him projected for 87.09 against one of the NFL’s worst defenses: Dallas.
Jefferson continued a breakout rookie season with 135 receiving yards last week in Chicago and had 64 the week before against Detroit. In Week 8, he only had 26 in Green Bay, while Dalvin Cook was the center of the Vikings’ offense. Then, in Minnesota’s previous game, he had 166.
Jefferson might be Kirk Cousins’ No. 1 option in the Vikings’ receiving game, and he’s entering a game that should be relatively high-scoring because of Minnesota’s own secondary issues.
The rookie from LSU is on the rise, and it’s time to get on the train while his numbers are around what they are this week.
WR K.J. Hamler
Hamler’s FanDuel total for receiving yards this week is 33.50, and SportsGrid projects him for 45.69 against the Dolphins.
The Broncos’ 2020 second-round receiver has 10 targets in each of their last two games, and he has 75 and 50 yards in those outings, respectively. He and Jerry Jeudy (whose 54.50 receiving yards total is also good value, with SportsGrid’s model projecting him for 67.91) are beginning to establish themselves as one of the NFL’s best young receiving duos.
They just need a quarterback that can get them the ball.
There are concerns about Drew Lock’s health and accuracy, but Hamler works in the slot and is the most reliable target for him. Even if Lock misses the game against Miami, Jeff Driskel proved himself not to be one of the league’s worst backup quarterbacks (I know, high praise) earlier this season when he stepped in for Lock.
The total is so low on Hamler, and given how well the Dolphins have been playing of late, it’s fair to assume Denver will be playing from behind and forced to throw.