Our Model’s Favorite Week 3 NFL Player Props
With another week in the books in the NFL season, there is even more clarity on who bettors can rely on. This week, SportsGrid’s player props model highlights a familiar name from last week’s picks and one name that you might not be overenthusiastic about betting.
We’ll start with the latter…
Washington QB Dwayne Haskins
Dwayne Haskins’ total passing yards at FanDuel is 223.5 yards, a total he has eclipsed just once in his NFL career. (He had 223 last week in a loss to the Cardinals.) He is projected for 283.18 by SportsGrid’s model, and it is all because of his matchup.
In the Week 2 Thursday night game, the Browns dominated the ball, and the game, early, forcing the Bengals to rely on Joe Burrow’s arm to get them back in the game. Burrow threw for 316 yards on 61 attempts as Cincinnati came up short in its comeback bid.
This week, it’s Washington that goes up against the Browns’ impressive rushing attack. Washington pulled off an impressive Week 1 comeback against a subpar Eagles team before being blown out of the water early against the Cardinals last week. Expect Cleveland to impose its will on the ground against Washington just as it did in Week 2 when Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 210 rushing yards and three touchdowns. That will leave Washington chasing the entire game and give Haskins a very good chance at a career-high for passing yards.
The Pick: Haskins over 223.5 passing yards
Steelers RB James Conner
If the Texans’ first two games of the season are any indication, James Conner is in store for another big week. His rushing yards total at FanDuel is 66.5, but SportsGrid’s model has Conner projected for 79.8 this week.
Houston has allowed 198 rushing yards per game this season between losses to the Chiefs and Steelers. After a disappointing six-carry game in Week 1, where suffered a slight ankle injury, Conner bounced back with 106 yards on the ground against the Broncos last week.
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said before the season, “There’s no question who our bell cow is.” Conner is going to be fed the ball plenty when healthy. He is not on Pittsburgh’s injury report leading into this game at home with Houston, so fire up the over.
The Pick: Conner over 66.5 rushing yards
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger
A big game for Conner might mean that Ben Roethlisberger has to take a backseat offensively against the Texans, which I’m sure he’ll be fine with. Roethlisberger’s passing yards total this week is 270.5 at FanDuel, but SportsGrid’s model projects him for just 241.78.
Success has been found against Houston this season by opposing offenses by keeping the ball on the ground. Patrick Mahomes was solid (by his standards) in a Week 1 drubbing of the Texans, while Lamar Jackson and Co. had most of their success by running the ball.
Houston has gotten off to a pair of terrible starts this season against quality opposition, and it doesn’t get any easier in Week 3 in this road tilt. The Steelers’ defense might be the best of the three, too, so that trend is likely to continue.
Expect Pittsburgh to come out with a ground-heavy attack that it maintains the entire game, which means Big Ben won’t be having a big game, which, again, is fine.
The Pick: Roethlisberger under 270.5 passing yards
Seahawks WRs Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf
Did you see what the Falcons did to the Cowboys last week? Did you also catch what the Seahawks did against a team that actually has a competent defense in the Patriots?
Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf should feast against the Cowboys this week, and both of their receiving totals are reasonable on FanDuel. Lockett is listed at 70.5 but projected by SportsGrid for 90.35, while Metcalf is at 63.50 on FanDuel and 87.91 on SportsGrid’s model.
Lockett fell just short of his FanDuel number last week, but he still had seven receptions for 67 yards and a touchdown. With Russell Wilson given the keys to the kitchen and cooking up a possible MVP season, his most reliable receiver is in store this week for at least the eight targets he saw against New England.
Metcalf, meanwhile, is breaking out in 2020. He was featured last week by SportsGrid’s model, and here he is again. This is unlikely to be his last appearance. Metcalf has a 95 and 92-yard game this season under his belt with a touchdown in each. The big-play threat easily hit his over against Stephon Gilmore last week. As long as Wilson is cooking, he’ll do it again against the Cowboys.
The Picks: Lockett over 70.5 receiving yards and Metcalf over 63.50 receiving yards