Our Model’s Favorite Week 4 NFL Bets
Offenses still aren’t firing on all cylinders in the NFL yet, and that’s reflective of the picks that the SportsGrid model likes in Week 4.
The SportsGrid model lists game bets and over/unders on a five-star system, and there are a plethora of five-star bets to be had this week. Here are four that I’ve highlighted:
Broncos Moneyline -143
It really doesn’t matter whether it’s Jeff Driskel or Brett Rypien at quarterback for the Broncos. SportsGrid’s model sees value in the Broncos’ moneyline because of the New York Jets.
Through three weeks, the Jets have scored the fewest points in the NFL, and they’re tied for fifth in points allowed. Their -57 point differential is the worst in the NFL by 16 points. They’ve lost every game by double digits and their past two against the 49ers and Colts by a combined 47 points.
Sound like a team you want to rely on when playing on a short week? I didn’t think so. The Broncos are also 0-3, but they dropped tight games to the Titans and Steelers to start the regular season before an 18-point loss to the Bucs. Unlike the Jets, though, there is legitimate talent on both sides of the ball. Denver is the bet on Thursday Night Football.
Seahawks-Dolphins Under 54.5
The under in a game that has Russell Wilson playing? Yes, it’s possible and quite plausible.
SportsGrid’s model likes this pick with the Seahawks set to miss running back Chris Carson after taking a rough hit in their win over the Cowboys. Seattle will rely on Carlos Hyde in the backfield against Miami in its second cross-country trip of the season. The Seahawks have not scored 30-plus points in four consecutive weeks since Weeks 12-15 in 2015. It’s fair to want to make sure that Seattle will really let Russell Wilson cook over the course of a 16-game season because that hasn’t been the recipe for success during Pete Carroll’s tenure.
The Seahawks’ defense has given up 87 points this season, mostly due to teams having to keep up with their high-powered offense. Do we have faith in the Dolphins to do the same? Miami has 59 points in its last two games, the latter of which was against a poor Jaguars team on Thursday Night Football.
The Dolphins’ offense didn’t reach 300 yards en route to its 31-point output against Jacksonville and has not looked particularly inspiring with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center this season. There’s a chance Seattle continues its massive offensive output this season, and the under is still the safe bet given how poor the Dolphins have been offensively.
Vikings-Texans Under 54
The Underachievers Bowl in Houston features two underperforming offenses, which is why the SportsGrid model sees value in this matchup of 0-3 teams.
While Dalvin Cook is rushing for 6.1 yards per carry and has 294 yards on the ground this season, Kirk Cousins has not lived up to his end of the bargain with 623 passing yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions. That includes an embarrassing 113-yard game against the Colts in Week 2.
The Texans’ defense hasn’t looked too promising this season, but their main weakness has been on the ground. Houston leads the NFL with 188.3 rushing yards allowed per game this season. If Minnesota has success this week, it’s eating the clock through a heavy dose of Cook.
With that sieve rush defense, Houston hasn’t built any rhythm on offense this season, albeit against three strong teams in the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. Deshaun Watson had a strong first half in Pittsburgh before fading down the stretch, while David Johnson is averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
With neither offense clicking, don’t expect this to be an aesthetically pleasing game for fans of points. The under is the play here.
Saints-Lions Under 54
Another under? Don’t mind if I do!
SportsGrid’s model likes this matchup in the Motor City between an underwhelming Saints offense and a Lions team that put up a season-high 26 points (nothing to brag about) in Week 3.
Even with Kenny Golladay back against the Cardinals, Matthew Stafford failed to throw for over 300 yards, and the Lions lacked much of a spark on offense. Detroit has also rushed for a middling 105.7 yards per game this season.
The Lions will host a Saints team that is lacking any big-play option on the perimeter. Aside from Alvin Kamara making defenders look bad, the absence of Michael Thomas was clear in losses to the Raiders and Packers. Thomas could return for this game, but that won’t add any power to Drew Brees’ arm. Brees is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt, which would be his lowest total in a season since 2010.
Without much big-play potential on either offense aside from Kamara, the under is the safe play here.