Our Model’s Favorite Week 4 NFL Player Props
Washington QB Dwayne Haskins
Dwayne Haskins was featured on this list last week, and he covered his 223.5 passing yards total by one-half yard. Another week brings another modest over/under of 225.5 on FanDuel, and the SportsGrid model likes him for 245.94 this week.
The 225.5 passing yards number is fair, given that Haskins has thrown for 223 and 224 over his past two games. Haskins would have taken any doubt out of the drama of his total last week if he didn’t throw three interceptions against the Browns, but such are the growing pains with a young quarterback.
As has been the case in their last two games, losses to the Cardinals and Browns, Washington will be down early and often in 2020. Haskins has attempted 101 passes through three games this season, and that average of 33.7 per game is likely to increase before the end of the season as long as he keeps starting.
Week 4 brings Washington a matchup with the Ravens, who should have a field day against a defense without rookie standout Chase Young. Haskins will throw plenty in this one, so hammer his over.
The Pick: Haskins over 225.5 passing yards
Washington RB Antonio Gibson
Just because there are two Washington players on this list, that doesn’t mean I’m advocating betting on the Football Team this weekend against Baltimore. But Antonio Gibson’s 39.5 rushing yards total on FanDuel is worth looking at. SportsGrid’s model projects him for 54.2.
Since being given the keys to the Washington backfield in Week 2, Gibson has 22 carries for 104 yards, and he has at least 49 yards in each of those games. He has enough talent, and Washington clearly wants to get him the ball, regardless of the score, so don’t expect his touches on the ground to dwindle just because his team is getting blown out. Gibson has also found the end zone in each of his last two games.
As the season goes on, Gibson will only get better despite the team around him every week. Take his over against the Ravens.
The Pick: Gibson over 39.5 rushing yards
Lions WR Kenny Golladay
As if his raw talent and playmaking ability weren’t enough, it’s looking like Kenny Golladay is in for a big game this week against the Saints. His receiving yards total is 61.5 on FanDuel, and SportsGrid projects him for 81.06.
After missing the first two games of the season due to injury, Golladay debuted in the Lions’ upset win over the Cardinals with six catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. When he’s on the field, Matthew Stafford will be looking his way often.
This week, New Orleans will be without both of its starting cornerbacks — Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins. The Saints are giving up 252.2 passing yards per game this season, which puts them in the bottom half of the NFL. Expect that number to increase, as well as Golladay’s average output per game.
The Pick: Golladay over 61.5 receiving yards
WR D.K. Metcalf
This is the third week I’ve written Metcalf for SportsGrid. This is the third week Metcalf will be listed as a guy to take the over on. He’s come through the first two times, and there’s no reason to believe this week will be any different.
Metcalf’s Week 4 receiving yards total on FanDuel is 67.5, but SportsGrid projects him for 92.35. Metcalf has receiving totals of 95, 92, and 110 this season with a touchdown in each game. (He should have had two trips to paydirt last week and another couple yards.) As I’ve mentioned in each of the past two weeks, he is enjoying a second-year breakout with Russell Wilson, the leading candidate to win MVP this season, at the helm of the Seattle offense.
If it isn’t broken, don’t try to fix it. Ride Metcalf’s over until it breaks. Tune in next week for why I tell you to take his over against the … Vikings? Oh, he’ll absolutely be on here again.
The Pick: Metcalf over 67.5 receiving yards