Our Model’s Favorite Week 5 NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 5 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted three of them below.
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys Under 54
The SportsGrid five-star pick for this is pretty straightforward, and it starts with the fact that the Giants can’t score. They haven’t topped 16 points in a game this season and haven’t topped 10 in a game in the last two weeks. Saquon Barkley is out for the season. Their offensive play-caller is former Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett who has repeatedly indicated that he wants to play amongst the slowest and most deliberate paces in the league. This could be because this is Garrett’s play-calling preference, or this could be because it is protecting a leaky Giants secondary that is still missing starting safeties Xavier McKinney and Jabrill Peppers.
The Cowboys may have had to throw for bunches of passing yards to try to steal victory from the jaws of defeat the last few games, but their ground game has been largely inefficient (Ezekiel Elliott is averaging 3.8 yards per carry), and their offensive line continues to be a bit shaky due to injuries. Add in that this is a divisional game with some extra pride on the line for what have been bad defenses, and it’s a bit easier to envision this being a game that stays under the 54.
New England Patriots -335 vs. Denver Broncos
Bill Belichick has lost a home game to a rookie quarterback ONE time in the regular season during his tenure in New England. That could, in theory, be the end of this handicap, but stylistically, this game sets up horribly for the Broncos. They are without injured defensive tackle Jurrell Casey, who they traded for specifically as a run-stuffing tackle, along with edge rusher Bradley Chubb, cornerback AJ Bouye, and numerous other members of their defense are out with injuries.
Broncos quarterback Jeff Driskell will be without wide receiver Courtland Sutton (out for the season), throwing to a rookie wide receiver (Jerry Jeudy), and a second-year tight end in Noah Fant.
Bill Belichick doesn’t change his ways. Noah Fant will be doubled, and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore will shadow Jeudy. It is exceedingly difficult to imagine the Patriots, especially if Cam Newton is back, losing this game. Even if he is not, the Patriots’ strength as a team this year is running the football, something which the Broncos will have a difficult time defending, giving all of their injuries.
Newton or not, the -335 is a good bet.
Indianapolis Colts -126 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Colts are coming off a sleepy victory over the Bears while the Browns torched the Cowboys in the 1:00 p.m. slot this past Sunday, but we’re back to these two teams that mirror each other here this week.
The Colts are holding teams to a league-low 14.5 points per game, while everyone with a pulse knows what the Cleveland Browns defensive front-seven brings to the table with Myles Garrett, Larry Ogunjobi, Sheldon Richardson, and company.
Both teams have league-leading offensive lines, strong run games, and game manager quarterbacks. Indy comes into the game with a slightly stronger defensive core, however, as the Browns secondary has been the weak link of the team so far: Colts wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal, in addition, to break out tight end Mo Allie-Cox should connect with Rivers at a higher rate than the Browns will, all else equal.
The Colts -126 is the play here.