Our Model’s Favorite Week 7 NFL Bets
Our Model’s Favorite Week 7 NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 7 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
Philadelphia Eagles -228
The SportsGrid five-star pick for the Eagles-Giants game on Thursday is the money line on Philadelphia. There are several factors at play that support the model’s thesis. First, the Giants are in a let-down spot coming off of their first victory of the year, coming against Washington. The Giants’ pass-rush and their entire defense with the exception of stud cornerback James Bradberry has been questionable at best.
Their offense under new coordinator Jason Garrett has been horrific. Except for a 34 point explosion against the bottom-barrel Cowboys, they haven’t topped 20 points yet this season, and this week doesn’t appear much better from a matchup standpoint. This game happens just in time for the Eagles to get right tackle Lane Johnson back to help protect Carson Wentz and wide receiver Desean Jackson for Wentz to throw to.
Wentz has gotten past a rough early part of the season for the offense to start clicking again, playing the Steelers and Ravens competitively in back-to-back weeks (scoring 28 and 29 points, respectively). Thus, the play here is Eagles -228.
Cleveland Browns -174
The SportsGrid five-star pick for the Bengals-Browns game is the money line on the Browns. There’s likely some value here as the Browns looked brutal against the Steelers last week but will face a much different Bengals team. The Bengals still have the same issues: namely, a bad defense that Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Kareem Hunt should run wild against, and a rookie quarterback (even if he’s a promising one) behind an offensive line that has been way below average.
Myles Garrett in Cleveland has played as a Defensive Player of the Year front-runner and should be able to keep it up to keep pressure in Burrow’s face with Sheldon Richardson, Larry Ogunjobi, and the rest of their offensive line. The Browns have been built by GM Andrew Berry to de-emphasize covering tight ends, but the Bengals can’t even take advantage of this because tight end CJ Uzomah is on IR.
Stylistically, it’s also just a bad matchup for Cincinnati, as they are missing the majority of their defensive line injured: Mike Daniels, Carlos Dunlap, and Geno Atkins all are injured; this bodes horribly for exactly what Cleveland HC Kevin Stefanski wants to do, which is run the ball. Cleveland should win here.
New England Patriots -2
The pick here is New England laying two points, and there are several good points. Bill Belichick rarely loses two games in a row, and off a loss is one of the most confident bets one can make. The Niners are coming off a Sunday night game where they just beat up on the Rams and now have to fly cross-country for a 1:00 p.m. start in Foxboro.
Belichick traded Jimmy Garropolo to the Niners and knew Niners’ head coach Kyle Shanahan well from the days of Shanahan working for his father. He will likely understand and anticipate most of what Shanahan will scheme up, but it’s likely that the game plan will be similar to what Belichick employed against the Raiders a few weeks back. George Kittle is San Francisco’s best player, and it’s likely Belichick will double him and make wide receivers Deebo Samuel (coming off injury), and Brandon Aiyuk (a rookie), as well as back-up running back JaMychal Hasty try to beat New England.
The Niners have no pass rush, and Cam Newton should have had a week with his receivers and coordinator Josh McDaniels to work out any issues that they had. San Francisco is just absolutely decimated on defense: Richard Sherman, Solomon Thomas, Nick Bosa, Kwon Alexander, and Dontae Johnson are all injured. Their defensive line, once a strength, is hurting from injuries. This should allow for Cam, running backs Damien Harris and James White, and his wide receivers to be able to control the line of scrimmage and steal a victory here by a field goal. Two points are short enough to lay. New England -2 is the play.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Las Vegas Raiders Under 52
I am of the opinion that Tampa Bay has the most complete defense in the league. Let’s start with that before we get to “Tom Terrific.” Their run defense is tops in the league and absolutely ferocious. The one thing that head coach Jon Gruden has tried to do in Las Vegas is establish the rushing game with second-year back Josh Jacobs. He will find tough sledding. The alternative is trying to have Derek Carr throw against the Pro Football Focus #1 ranked passing defense.
The Raiders will likely try to open up lanes for Jacobs to run and run the clock to keep the ball out of Brady’s hands. The Raiders are coming off of a bye after beating their division rivals Kansas City. This game appears like it could be a let-down spot for Las Vegas offensively. Defensively, the Raiders starting defense is still not great; however, it is the Sunday Night Football game hosted at the Raiders’ new dome stadium. The Bucs are doing a good bit of scoring but are still hurting everywhere injury-wise. Wide Receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both played spectacularly last week against Green Bay, but it was the first time both of them were on the same field in several weeks. The under should be the play here as a result, for a 27-24 type-victory.
Seattle Seahawks – Arizona Cardinals Under 56
The SportsGrid pick here is under 56 for the game. At first glance, the game looks to be a shootout, but there are good reasons to assume it will go under the total. First, 56 points is still an exceedingly high total. Seattle is coming off of their bye week, and there is a chance they could be a bit rusty. Arizona also comes in in a letdown spot after blowing out the Cowboys on national television in prime time on Monday Night Football.
Stylistically, strengths, and weaknesses cancel each other out here for each team. The Seahawks are a run defense; first, their secondary has been the worst in the league by far. The Cardinals haven’t capitalized on bad passing defenses as much as would make one comfortable (they put up quality passing stats against the Jets but were pedestrian against the Cowboys and Lions). The running game, keyed by Kenyan Drake and Kyler Murray, has been the strength of their offense. The Seahawks are, in fact, #LettingRussCook, but it is still a home game for Arizona and one that they will be extra motivated to play “Lights Out” defense for as it is a divisional game against the team with the MVP front-runner in Russell Wilson as well as the team that Arizona presumptively would have to go through to win the NFC West title. All that considered, there is a good chance the game goes under the total of 56.