Our Model’s Favorite Week 9 NFL Bets
Our Model’s Favorite Week 9 NFL Bets
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 9 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
Los Angeles Chargers (-115) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The first five-star prediction of the SportsGrid model is taking the Los Angeles Chargers on the moneyline against the Las Vegas Raiders. This game will just end up being a stylistic matchup that will favor the Chargers. First, the Chargers look to be properly motivated this week after losing a game at the last second to Denver last week. They have put up loads of points since making the switch to rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, who has thrown the ball all over the yard to receivers Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and tight end Hunter Henry.
This bodes well in this matchup because the Raiders passing defense is by far the weakest unit on the team. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has repeatedly indicated through his play that he cannot handle pressure in his face. While Rodney Hudson and Kolton Miller lead a solid offensive line for the Raiders, the Chargers defense, even sans-all world safety Derwin James, is a murderer’s row of defenders led by edge rusher Joey Bosa and a secondary led by All-Pro cornerback Casey Hayward. Motivation and a good matchup stylistically lead the model to indicate taking the Chargers here.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. Detroit Lions
The next five-star prediction of the SportsGrid model takes us to the NFC North. This is a pretty simple handicap here: the trends of each team are going in opposite directions. The Vikings have found their offense again behind a potent Dalvin Cook rushing attack and Kirk Cousins airing the ball out to Adam Thielen and rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Their rush defense has stayed solid as one would expect in a Mike Zimmer-coached defense, and the passing defense, while it’s still not great, is no longer as bad as the Seattles and Atlantas of the world.
The Lions’ passing defense is still atrocious, and now both quarterback Matt Stafford and star wide receiver Kenny Golladay. Rookie D’Andre Swift has looked solid in the Lions’ games off of their bye, but outside of the Falcons giving away a game to them a few weeks back, they haven’t trended in the right direction. Vikings are the play.
Baltimore Ravens (-129) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are banged up. Wide receiver TY Hilton is hurt, it’s rookie pass-catcher Michael Pittman’s first game back from injury, and star running back Jonathan Taylor all but admitted last week that he’s been grinding out playing hurt. Phil Rivers exploded against Cincinnati but otherwise has looked completely washed. Their “top-ranked” defense is largely a mirage because of the lack of opponents they’ve played with any offensive firepower (their first four opponents were the Jags, Jets, Bears, and a Vikings team that hadn’t found its offensive footing yet).
The Ravens lost LT Ronnie Stanley to injury for the season, but other than losing to Patrick Mahomes and the Steelers, both of which are probable AFC Championship contenders, they’re not really playing much differently than last season where they bludgeoned teams behind Lamar Jackson’s running ability. The offense looks renewed since their bye with rookie running back JK Dobbins and picking up edge rusher Yanick Ngakoue for a pittance from Minnesota, on top of an already ferocious defense with no real weakness. The Ravens are cheap at -129 here.
Pittsburgh Steelers-Dallas Cowboys Over 42
The SportsGrid model shows over 42 as a five-star bet in this game. While the game in Dallas will feature Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert at quarterback for Dallas playing behind a makeshift offensive line playing against one of the most complete defenses in the league at all three levels, stocked with stars like Bud Dupree, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and TJ Watt probably has bettors leaning towards the under, a couple of things to remember.
First, the Steelers could absolutely get to 35 points by themselves against the worst overall defense in the NFL. Second, scoring in the NFL is still up, on average, at 49.4 points per game this year. This is still four points higher than an average year, and so a number that’s only 42 is still exceptionally low. The Browns, Giants, Cardinals, Falcons, and Seahawks all topped 35 points against the Cowboys. The Steelers can get there, and the model likely weighs that because of all of the pass-catching talent currently on the Cowboys’ roster, they can at least put up a garbage-time touchdown or two. Over 42 is the play.