Padres vs Rangers MLB Odds and Simulations
The San Diego Padres and Texas Ranger start a four-game, two-city set Monday night. Texas won two-of-three in San Diego in the most recent series (September 2018) between the two sides.
Let’s look at where the value is at in this one.
- San Diego: -130
- Texas: +110
- San Diego -1.5: +125
- Texas +1.5: -145
- Over 8.5: -110
- Under 8.5: -110
Key Points to Consider
Padres Looking to Bounce Back: San Diego heads into this one having lost four straight, still looking up at the Dodgers in the NL West. They will look to Zach Davies Monday night as he makes his fifth start of the season.
Davies recorded a loss his last time out, on the road vs the LA Dodgers last week when he gave up two runs and four hits in seven innings. He has a 1-2 record on the season with a 2.55 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP.
Momentum: Texas, on the other hand, heads into this series having four straight and seven of their last eight. They’re at home to start the series which does make things a little more complicated in terms of wagers. They have the momentum and home field advantage while the Padres have a bit more talent.
It’ll most likely depend on Davies, and if he’s able to have another performance like that vs the Dodgers. The Padres lost, sure, but he held his own through seven innings.
Betting Trend: While this doesn’t match up with simulation data, let’s not forget that Texas has played above expectations vs A-level talent. They are 4-0 overall in their last four matchups vs a start with a WHIP less than 1.15.
For San Diego, Zach Davies is projected to pitch six innings, giving up six hits and two-to-three runs. The Rangers average 0.79 HRs per sim off Davies.
For Texas, Jordan Lyles is projected to pitch five innings, giving up five-to-six hits and three-plus runs. The Padres average 1.16 HRs per sim off Lyles
San Diego to win.
Odds indicate the Padres have a 56.5 percent chance to win this matchup Monday night. They win over 62 percent of simulations, suggesting quite a bit of side value on this pick. That side value is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick.
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