Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 11
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let’s see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Burnley vs. Everton
Everton to win -105
Everton have hit a bit of a rough patch after a strong start to the season, losing four out of their last five matches. Overall they are falling down toward the middle of the table, which is probably where they belong. They are currently in eighth place with a 5W-1D-4L record and a +1.2 expected goal difference, per FBRef.
The good news for Everton is that they face a struggling Burnley team that is 1-2-6 on the year with a -5.2 expected goal difference. Burnley are 19th in the table and 18th in expected goal difference, so they certainly are a major contender to be relegated this season.
While neither team has done exceptionally well recently, Everton is clearly the superior team, and we can get them at -105 to win.
West Brom vs. Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace to win +155
West Brom are by far the worst team in the league, according to expected goal difference, as they are last with a -12.5 expected goal differential. This puts them at more than seven goals behind 19th-ranked Sheffield United, who is at -5.3.
Based on this, it is unsurprising that West Brom are last in both expected goals scored at 6.7 and expected goals against at 19.1. They have undoubtedly been the worst team in the EPL so far this season despite slightly outperforming their true performance with a 1-3-6 record.
Crystal Palace do not fair great in expected goal difference, as their -4.0 expected goal difference ranks them 17th in the league. However, they have still clearly been much better than West Brom, and Palace have 4 wins in 10 games to start the year. Palace should have a great chance to win this game, and getting them at plus odds is an enticing betting opportunity.
Sheffield United vs. Leicester City
Leicester to win -105
Sheffield United are off to an incredibly disappointing start at 0-1-9, putting them in dead last to start the year. Sheffield are -5.3 in expected goal difference, which is 19th in the league, ahead of only the aforementioned West Brom.
Leicester City are still a good team at 6-0-4 with a +2.3 expected goal differential. The Foxes are tied for fourth in the league in expected goals scored, so they should be able to find goals against a leaky Sheffield United defense.
Leicester have lost two in a row. While one of the defeats was a surprising home slip-up against Fulham, the other was to defending champs Liverpool. The Foxes are the better team — 7.6 goals better by expected goal difference — and they should be able to take the three points.