Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 7
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let’s see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Liverpool vs West Ham
West Ham +1 (+210)
West Ham are 2W-2D-2L on the season despite facing a difficult schedule.The Hammers drew their last two games against Manchester City and Tottenham, and they even outshot Tottenham, 13-11, in that matchup. West Ham are fourth in the league in FBRef’s expected goal difference, so they’ve been playing well.
Obviously, Liverpool are still a fantastic team, but they have been struggling recently. Liverpool were stunningly blown out in a 7-2 thrashing to Aston Villa, and that was followed by a draw to Everton and an underwhelming 2-1 home win against Sheffield United.
With Manchester City struggling, Liverpool are still the best team in the league, but they are not as invincible as they were last season. West Ham are an exciting betting opportunity as they’re in solid form and should be able to put up a fight, especially with Liverpool short-handed at center-back.
Aston Villa vs Southampton
Southampton to win +180
Aston Villa are off to a great start to the season at 4-0-1, but they have been somewhat fortunate to achieve their current record, considering they have only a +1.2 expected goal difference for the season. Villa got outshot 27-12 and lost 3-0 to Leeds United in their last match, so they will be looking for a bounce-back performance.
Southampton come into this game on a roll, having gone 3-1-0 in their last four. Southampton just defeated previously unbeaten Everton, 2-0, outshooting them (13-6) in that matchup.
Overall, Southampton are just 0.3 expected goals behind Aston Villa, so there is hardly anything to separate these two sides. With an even game on the cards, Southampton are a good pick to win as a slight underdog.
Newcastle vs Everton
Everton to win -105
This fixture appears to be a mismatch based on recent results. Everton are 4-1-1, tied for first in the table on points and second in the league in expected goal difference at 4.4.
Newcastle are 2-2-2, but they are 18th in the league in expected goal difference at -3.3. The Magpies are lucky to have the record they do at this stage. Newcastle have been outshot 44-12 combined in their last two matches, so they have certainly been having a hard time of late.
Everton are playing at a much higher level than Newcastle early in the season, and we should expect the Toffees to be able to pull out the victory without much hassle.