With the PGATOUR returning to action for the Charles Schwab Challenge, it was Daniel Berger claiming the victory with a 15-under par final score and a playoff victory over tour rookie Collin Morikawa. The star-studded leaderboard also featured Bryson Dechambeau, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Rose just a stroke back at 14-under par. Schauffele went into the final round as the leader but found the water down the home stretch and made bogey.
Dechambeau’s performance was notable as he showed up a much bulkier version of himself, and proceeded to average 1.83 strokes gained OTT compared to the next closes competitor which was Xander Schauffele at 1.24 strokes gained. To put that in perspective, that gap is as big as the gap between Xander and the 25th ranked player.
Some other notable performances included Sergio Garcia (missed cut but was 4th T2G through two rounds), Jon Rahm (missed cut but was 7th T2G through two rounds) and Jordan Spieth (led field with +2.15 SGP).
Given the hiatus before last week’s round and the similarity between the courses, bettors and oddsmakers will be tasked with how heavily to weigh the most recent performance of each player in the field.
RBC Heritage Open Betting Odds
The RBC Heritage is this week’s tour stop as Harbour Town hosts the event which again features several top-end players. Rory McIlroy is again the favorite, offered at 11-1 odds, followed by Bryson Dechambeau (14-1), Justin Thomas (18-1) and Jon Rahm (18-1). Last week’s contenders also saw their odds slashed, as Xander Schauffele (20-1), Collin Morikawa (27-1) and Daniel Berger (37-1) were available at almost 2x the price last week.
- Rory McIlroy 11-1
- Bryson Dechambeau 14-1
- Justin Thomas 16-1
- Jon Rahm 18-1
- Xander Schauffele 20-1
- Collin Morikawa 27-1
- Hideki Matsuyama 27-1
- Justin Rose 29-1
- Patrick Reed 29-1
- Sungjae Im 29-1
- Webb Simpson 29-1
- Jordan Spieth 31-1
- Brooks Koepka 34-1
- Gary Woodland 34-1
- Daniel Berger 37-1
- Dustin Johnson 40-1
- Matt Kuchar 42-1
- Branden Grace 45-1
- Rickie Fowler 50-1
- Tony Finau 50-1
- Tyrell Hatton 50-1
Making their relaunch debut will be Hideki Matsuyama and Tyrell Hatton, while the rest of the field will be largely similar to the field that we just saw. Course history monster Luke Donald (+2.16 strokes gained on average at Harbour town) is offered at 130-1.
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook
RBC Heritage Open Course Fit
The chart below reflects the course fit for Harbour Town via DataGolf and much like last week shows that the course rewards driving distance less than the majority of courses on tour. In fact, the closest course comp for Harbour Town is … Colonial Country Club with a similarity score of 90.1 so it wouldn’t be shocking to see a similar profile of player towards the top of the leaderboard. Harbour Town will play as a Par 71 at 7099 yards long and is again one of the shorter courses on tour.
Leveraging course fit data, Jim Furyk (+0.41 strokes), Brian Stuard (+0.31), Brendon Todd (+0.30), Chez Reavie (+0.24), Luke Donald (+0.22) are among the notable names who receive outsized boosts to their baseline expectations based on how their game sets up for Harbour Town.
Historically, Harbour Town has played as one of the ten toughest courses on tour but has often had a watered-down post-Masters field. This week’s field is strong, so scoring could be lower, particularly if the wind conditions stay mild.
RBC Heritage Betting Picks
Webb Simpson (29-1): The performance for Simpson wasn’t strong last week, with a +2 score and missed cut. However, Simpson did rebound in the 2nd round getting close to the cut line before fading back. In the end, the missed cut was driven by 2.9 strokes lost putting, but his OTT play was solid at +0.82 strokes gained. Simpson receives a boost for both course history and course fit at Harbour Town, on top of being a Top 10 player in this field.
Ryan Moore (150-1): Ryan Moore also checks both the course fit and course history boxes receiving favorable boosts on both fronts. Similar to Simpson, Moore’s performance at Colonial was middling, but that is why his 150-1 odds are deeper than players of similar skill and profile like Brian Harman or Kevin Na who are both priced at 80-1.
Both of these are leveraging historic RBC Heritage course fit info to make our predictions, while last week we saw Colonial Country Club play a bit differently than years passed. If a similar thing were to happen this week at Harbour Town, both Dustin Johnson (40-1) and Scottie Scheffler (60-1) would be attractive values.