Reverse Line Movement and Fishy Lines for NFL Week 3
Our record for fishy lines that have proven to fade the public is 6-2 this season. Whether you bet the underdog or stay away from these lines is up to you. However, it’s my job to bring these fishy games to your attention. There are only two fishy lines with notable reverse line movement this week, while a few others have moved by the hook in the opposite direction of the public.
Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
The New England Patriots return home to Foxborough, Massachusetts, following a 35-30 Sunday Night Football loss to the Seattle Seahawks. The Vegas Raiders opened up the new Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada last week in a 34-24 Monday Night Football win over the New Orleans Saints. Two prime time spots with very different results.
Heading into Week 3, the public side is the Patriots. As of Friday, 74% of bets were taking New England on the spread. The line has favored the Raiders, moving the Patriots from 6.5 to 5.5-point home favorites. This number puts the game in bettors limbo. I’m waiting to see if and how this line moves as we get closer to Sunday.
Vegas has the third-worst defense against the pass this season, allowing 285.5 passing yards per game. Although, Patriots quarterback Cam Newton is known for his mobility, his passing game hasn’t been questioned yet this season. Newton had a completion percentage of 78.9% against the Dolphins in the season opener. He then threw for 397 passing yards last week against the Seahawks. The 2015 NFL MVP has not thrown for close to 400 passing yards since his 2011 rookie campaign in Carolina throwing for 422 and 432 yards.
As for Vegas, Derek Carr hasn’t turned the ball over yet this season. His completion percentage has been around 73% in both games. Based on last week’s box score, my only concern is Carr’s inability to spread the ball around. Raiders tight end Darren Waller had 16 targets last week, resulting in 12 receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown.
All other receivers had one to three targets and no more than 42 receiving yards. New England’s defense struggled last week when Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson spread the ball around, allowing five touchdowns to five different receivers.
Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings
The reverse line movement in this game is on the total. In this Titans-Vikings afternoon game, the total has been on the rise from 46 now up to 49.5 on the FanDuel SportsBook. With 61% of bets to the under, it smells fishy.
It is the second-straight game the Titans have been involved in a fishy total. Last week, the Jaguars-Titans matchup had 81% of bets to the under with the total moving from 42.5 up to 44. It proved to be a sharp reverse line movement as Tennessee won 33-30. The same movement is happening in this game due to public bias on the Titans having a good defense and the Vikings putting up 11 points last week against the Colts.
Minnesota’s defense has allowed the second-most points per game this season, averaging 35.5 points allowed. Only the Atlanta Falcons have allowed more, averaging 39 points per game. As for Tennessee, they are a bottom-10 defense against the pass and the run this season.
The Titans allow the 10th-most passing yards per game with 265.5. Against the ground game, Tennessee gives up 136 rushing yards per game. It’s your average 1:00 PM game on the east coast, which is where Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins tends to come to life.
I’d be careful of this total.
Other Fishy Lines To Keep An Eye On
Detroit at Arizona has moved from Arizona -6 to -5.5 despite 57% of bets on Arizona as of Friday afternoon.
Tampa Bay at Denver has moved from Tampa -6 to -5.5, with 89% of bets on Bucs.
Kansas City at Baltimore is moving in the Ravens’ direction, pushing the Ravens from 3 to 3.5-point home favorites. Only 28% of bets were on the Ravens laying the points as of Friday afternoon.