Reverse Line Movement and Fishy Lines for NFL Week 4
As Sunday approaches, there are always a few NFL lines that seem fishy. In case this is the first article you’ve read regarding NFL line movements, fishy lines are where we see reverse line movement in the marketplace. This means the line is moving in the opposite direction of where the majority of the bets are going. Reverse line movement signals sharp action on a particular side. There are a few this week, especially with some home dogs.
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins
Good teams win, but great teams cover. The Seattle Seahawks have been a prime of example of the betting cliché. Seattle is 3-0 straight up and against the spread this season. They now travel to the Miami Dolphins this weekend, who are 1-2 overall, however, 2-1 against the spread. As for the line movement, the Seahawks opened as 6.5-point road favorites. Despite 71% of bets on Seattle, the line has moved against them, with the Seahawks currently laying 6 points on FanDuel SportsBook.
This reverse line movement is not surprising after sharp bettors such as Gianni the Greek in Vegas and the Director of Trading at FanDuel John Sheeran said it could be a bad spot for Seattle. The Seahawks defense ranks last in the NFL in total yards allowed giving up 497.3 total yards per game. This is only Miami’s second home game of the season. In the first game during week two, the Dolphins lost to the Buffalo Bills by a slim margin 31-28.
Miami quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has gone back-to-back weeks without throwing an interception. His offense has produced 28 and 31 points in the last two weeks as well. If Fitzpatrick can keep turnovers to a minimum, Miami can keep this game close against the NFL’s worst passing defense in the Seahawks.
Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys
Theis line is frozen with the Dallas Cowboys favored at -4.5 despite the Cowboys receiving 65% of bets. However, the total owns the fishier line movement in this game as70% of the public is on the under, with the total on the rise, moving from 54 to 56.5. Both teams are 2-1 to the over this season
The Cowboys are a bottom-10 defense against the run allowing 127.7 rushing yards per game. Although they’ve only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season, the Cowboys have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league with nine. The Browns are not far behind by allowing the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL with eight.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Cowboys’ 490.7 total yards per game is the most in the league. In 2019, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott had the second-most passing yards in the NFL. To begin 2020, Prescott has taken over as the leader with 1,188 passing yards. At the top of another statistical category is the Browns’ run game. Cleveland has the third most rushing yards this season with 170.3 rushing yards per game. The backfield duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have a combined 496 rushing yards to start the year with both running backs over 200 yards on the ground.
Between the Cowboys and Browns struggles against the pass in the red zone to Dallas’ issues protecting against Cleveland’s strength, the run game, these two teams match up perfectly with each other for an exciting shoot out.