Sanderson Farms Championship PGA Betting Preview & Analysis
Sanderson Farms Overview
It has been two weeks since the U.S. Open and we are looking at another lackluster field for the Sanderson Farms Championship in Jackson, MS but that does not mean there isn’t value in the field for us to capitalize on.
The tournament will be played at the Country Club of Jackson, which should tip out around 7,450 yards and play as a par 72. Looking at the historical winning scores, we can expect a winner to come in around 20 under par, so we need to look for guys that can make birdies with the best of them.
These grainy Bermuda greens are smaller than that of an average PGA Tour event, so a premium on iron play needs to be considered. One other interesting fact to keep in mind when putting together a betting card this week is that each of the past six winners at this event were first-time winners on Tour.
A risky play that could pay dividends this week would be J.B. Holmes (+10000). Holmes was in great form to begin the ’19-’20 season with three straight top-20 finishes prior to the COVID shutdown. He then battled an injury after the restart, playing only one competitive round for the balance of the season, withdrawing after the first day at the Workday.
He returned two weeks ago at the Safeway Open, making the cut and shaking off the rust by playing under par in each of the four rounds. At 100% health, he carries much more favor in this field than the books currently give him, and I will be banking on the fact he makes it through without injury. Fire him up across the board at great value for top 20, top 10, and outright bets.
If we are looking to be on a seventh consecutive first-time winner on tour at this event, I want my money on Patrick Rodgers (+5000). The 28-year-old struggled mightily for the majority of the ’20-’21 season, but he has hit his stride in the past few months with three top 20’s post restart and also a T11 last week at the Corales Punta Cana. A bomber off the tee, a hot putter may all Rodgers needs to break through for his first victory on Tour.
Another undervalued target this week is Si Woo Kim (+4100), as his stats in his past 12 and 20 rounds stack up quite favorably to the rest of this field. He has been striking the ball as good as any point of his career lately, and in a field of this caliber, the price on him for top 10 and outright is just too good for me to pass up.
The shortest price I want to swallow this week is Byeong Hun An (+2700) as he fits the bill in a number of stats we want to use for this week. He was sixth in the field in Stroke Gained: Tee-to-Green at this event last year. He also ranks in the top five in the field for Total Stroke Gained, when making a custom model that only factors in the type of course layout that will be played this week. Putting is always the Achilles heel for An, but backers this week will be elated to hear that he ranks in the top half of the field in putting on Bermuda greens over the past 50 rounds.
My Betting Card
- J.B. Holmes T20 (+500)
- J.B. Holmes T10 (+1100)
- J.B. Holmes Outright (+10000)
- Patrick Rodgers Outright (+5000)
- Si Woo Kim T10 (+550)
- Si Woo Kim outright (+4100)
- Byeong Hun An outright (+2700)
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook