SNF: Week 13 Broncos-Chiefs Betting Preview
SNF: Week 13 Broncos-Chiefs Betting Preview
After COVID-19 robbed us of a top-notch Primetime game last Thursday with a healthy Ravens and Steelers matchup, here we are on Sunday night with a mismatch closer to the postponed version of Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh. No, Denver is not missing a plethora of players like the Ravens were or forced to play without a real quarterback as they had to against the Saints last week, but they are in really tough against a juggernaut of a Chiefs team. Still, there are some intriguing storylines and potential wagers out there. As always said, stakes are coming to you from our good friends at FanDuel.
Kansas City has been about as dominant as a football team can be this season. A 10-1 record, the league’s top offense, and just one win away from clinching at least a share of the AFC West title. That win should come against a team they’ve beaten a whole lot over the past half-decade.
The Chiefs have taken out Denver in ten-straight games, rocking a winning streak that began on November 15, 2015. Yes, Kansas City was beating up on the Broncos even before being blessed with Patrick Mahomes. But Mahomes picked up the mantle right off the bat and now boasts a 6-0 career mark against his division rivals. KC has covered nine of the ten games during the streak, including a 43-16 October win in Denver this season.
Back to Mahomes for a second. Not only is he undefeated against Denver, but he has put up some excellent numbers in the process. The Chiefs pivot has a 103.9 QB rating, is completing nearly 70% of his passes, and has ten touchdowns, one coming on the ground in his career against the Broncos. He’s only thrown for more yards against the Raiders in his career, the team that handed KC their only loss this year.
Dropping one to Las Vegas in Week 5 did very little to slow Mahomes’ ridiculous season. It wasn’t his best game, but the former 10th overall pick burned the Raiders for 340 of his 3,497 passing yards on the season. His MVP season resume reads like no other. Leading the league in yards, second in QB rating, three TD passes from the league lead, and an NFL-best two, that’s right, just two interceptions in 423 pass attempts—mind-blowing numbers.
Mahomes is not doing it alone, though. His supporting cast has been Oscar-worthy this campaign. Tyreek Hill has an NFL-best 13 receiving touchdowns, including three in a 27-24 victory at Tampa Bay last week, where he set a team record with six catches of 20-plus yards. Tight end Travis Kelce is doing his part as well, putting up the third-most receiving yards in the NFL with 978, which is kind of crazy for a TE to be doing.
So, that’s the passing attack Denver’s defense is tasked to slow down. That task will be more formidable this week with the team’s best cornerback out. Bryce Callahan was placed on IR with a foot injury, and he’s not the only member of the secondary hurt. Safety Trey Marshall, who started two games last year, is also out with a shin injury.
They’ll also have to worry about the running game, something Denver’s struggled with all year long. The Broncos rank 27th against the run and will have to deal with a plucky rookie running back and a mobile quarterback.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire leads the team with almost 700 rushing yards, just under 63 a game, and has had success against Denver. The diminutive back was burning the Broncos for nearly six yards per carry when the two teams met in Week 7.
Mahomes could also be a problem on the ground. The 25-year-old has 215 yards on the ground this year to go along with a pair of rushing touchdowns. QBs have burned Denver on the ground to the tune of the league’s seventh-most rushing yards allowed and five quarterback keeper touchdowns, tied for 2nd worst in the league.
Denver’s best chance to stay competitive in this one is by getting to the quarterback, something they have had some success with against Kansas City. No team has sacked Mahomes more in his career than the Broncos. Denver’s front line has gotten to the Chiefs QB 11 times, twice as much as any other team in the NFL. The Broncos front line has been solid this year, ranked seventh with 31 sacks, fifth with 114 QB pressures, and second with 54 QB hurries.
Getting to Mahomes or not, it’s going to be a tall order for the Broncos to hang with the Chiefs. Denver has a paltry offense, ranked 27th overall averaging 325.2 yards per game, and are the second-lowest scoring team in the NFL, putting up just 19 per game.
That being said, with KC likely jumping out to a big lead, Drew Lock will have plenty of opportunities to let it fly and try to improve Denver’s 26th ranked passing attack averaging just 211.7. The Broncos quarterback has recently jolted the offense, putting up 280 yards a game in their last three.
While Lock will have his chance to pad the stats expect a healthy dose of Kansas City points coming from a balanced offensive attack in a very one-sided affair.
Chiefs to cover 13.5 (-104)
Over 50.5 total points scored (-114)
Chiefs over 31.5 total points scored (-108)
Broncos under 18.5 total points scored (-110)
Patrick Mahomes scores receiving or rushing touchdown (+230)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 50.5 rushing yards (-110)
Drew Locke over 235.5 passing yards (-110)
Quick Hit Trends
Broncos are 1-9 against the spread in their past ten meetings.
Favorite is 4-1 against the spread in their past five meetings.
Chiefs are 9-2-1 against the spread in their past 12 home games.
Chiefs are 5-0-1 against the spread in their past six games in December. Broncos are 7-1 against the spread in their past eight games following an against the spread loss.