We’re always interested when simulation data and odds-makers are on the opposite side of the money line. That’s exactly what we’ve got in Friday’s matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates. The first-place St. Louis Cardinals hit the road for a three-game at PNC Park. We’ll have Miles Mikolas and Joe Musgrove on the mound for their respective teams.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals: -130
Pittsburgh Pirates: +112
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5: +130
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5: -152
Over 8.5: -110
Under 8.5: -110
What to Watch For
Cardinals pitcher Mike Mikolas is no stranger to facing the Pirates. He has a respectable 3.66 ERA in five starts against the Pirates this season.
Pittsburgh has turned it around recently, coming off a nice four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies. Joe Musgrove had a strong start his last time out, holding Colorado to three runs in six innings as the Pirates won, 11-4.
St. Louis holds a 12-4 lead in the season series.
Miles Mikolas is projected to pitch five innings for the Cardinals, giving up seven hits and three runs. He averages five strikeouts per sim, giving up 0.68 HRs per.
Joe Musgrove is projected to pitch a shade over five innings for the Pirates, giving up six hits and two-to-three runs. He averages seven strikeouts per sim, giving up 0.78 HRs per.
The Over, and Pittsburgh +1.5.
Whereas odds-makers have the Cardinals as favorites to win, simulation data has the home team winning 55 percent of matchups.
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