THE CJ CUP PGA Betting Picks & Analysis
Tourney / Course Overview
We are in for quite a treat this week as the changes in the PGA TOUR schedule due to COVID-19 now has this week’s CJ Cup at the beautiful Shadow Creek Golf Course in North Las Vegas. This Tom Fazio track will cost you a well-spent $500 to go hack it around at, but now you get to sit back and watch 74 of the world’s best tee it up for four days in this no-cut event in the desert.
Unfortunately, we will be without world No. 1 Dustin Johnson as he tested positive for COVID-19 on Tuesday and will be on the shelf for the next two weeks. For many of golf’s best, this will be the first time they tee it up post-U.S. Open. This week and next week offer the small, elite fields that we have become accustomed to seeing more and more on the PGA TOUR.
The course projects to play around 7,550 yards (par 72) but keep in mind, as we saw last week at the Shriners, the ball carries quite a bit further in the desert air, so don’t expect these guys to have any trouble with distance here. This risk/reward, bentgrass laden piece of beauty, will show its teeth should the wind pick up at all, but other than a slight breeze on Thursday, as of writing, the forecast predicts nothing other than sunny skies and desert heat.
We have very little if any, course history here at Shadow Creek, so this will be a week where we try to find players in form and take some hunches on who might like their first trip around the place. At the high end of the betting range, I will start my card with Sebastian Munoz (+15000 FanDuel Sportsbook). Munoz has played too good of golf over the past year to be priced the way he is, even in this elite of a field.
The twenty-seven-year-old Colombian posted impressive finishes of T18-T8-T8 in the three FedEx Cup Playoff events against the world’s best, and he has also started his 2021 season off with three straight made cuts coming into this week. An outright victory is probably too much to ask of Munoz this week, but fire him up in top 20 and top 10 bets.
Another mid to higher-priced player to note this week is Bubba Watson (+6000 Fanduel Sportsbook). Watson ranks third in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the past 36 rounds, and given he has a guaranteed four rounds this week to take advantage of his shot shaping abilities; he should figure into this tournament come Sunday. I will have a small outright position on him, but I absolutely love his top-10 price at a robust +470.
In the smaller fields such as this one, it is tough to play any of the top tier golfers in anything other than in outright positions. Brooks Koepka returns this week after a nearly two-month layoff due to his knee injury, and the four-time major winner isn’t the type of guy to come back just to get a feel for his game. At +3000 (Fanduel Sportsbook), there is just way too much value for the 2018 CJ Cup winner to not take a taste on. It is one of those things where come Sunday night, you will be shaking your head if you miss this guy at this price.
The last outright I will have in this tier is Xander Schauffele (+1400, Fanduel Sportsbook). Normally that number is too short for me, but the X Man absolutely dominates in this no-cut events, winning three of his four PGA TOUR titles in this format. Schauffele also leads this field in Par 5 scoring over the past 36 rounds, and that should help as they will be playing four per day this week.
Sebastian Munoz T20 (+300)
Sebastian Munoz T10 (+900)
Bubba Watson T10 (+470)
Bubba Watson Outright (+6000)
Brooks Koepka Outright (+3000)
Xander Schauffele Outright (+1400)
All prices from Fanduel Sportsbook