Thunder vs Rockets NBA Odds and Simulations
The NBA Playoffs continue Tuesday as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets tip off their best-of-seven series in what’s one of the more highly anticipated matchups this postseason.
Let’s look at where the value is at in this one.
- OKC Thunder: -130
- Houston Rockets: +110
- OKC Thunder -2: -110
- Houston Rockets +2: -110
- Over 225.5: -110
- Under 225.5: -110
Key Points to Consider
Outlook: This is almost a dream matchup in terms of storylines. Chris Paul was a member of the Rockets just last season. He was traded to the Thunder, and now they’re the favorites against the Russell Westbrook-less Rockets. Westbrooks is expected game mid-series, so we’ll keep an eye on Houston to tread water in games 1 and 2. Houston was just 4-4 in the bubble seeding games.
Some Numbers: Defense wins titles, we’ve all heard that before. And an underrated part of defense is rebounding. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league in rebound rate. They’ll need to consciously address that against a disciplined Thunder team. Recently, though, Houston is making up for this deficiency by owning a favorable turnover margin and taking care of the ball to maximize possessions.
Welcome Back: Big man Steven Adams will return to the Thunder lineup as the postseason tips off. He had missed the last three games due to a lef leg injury. OKC has the seventh-best defense in the league.
For OKC, Chris Paul is projected to finish with 17 points on 49% shooting, along with 7 assists, 5 rebounds, 1 steal and 3 TOs.
For Houston, James Harden is projected to finish with 27 points on 44% shooting, along with 7 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals and 4 TOs.
Average total score in simulations hits the UNDER in about 59% of simulations. Total score in sims is 219.5 on average.
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