TNF: Broncos-Jets Player Props
The fourth week of the NFL season kicks off with two teams looking for their first win of the season. The Denver Broncos (0-3) travel to the New York Jets (0-3) for Thursday Night Football. There are many uncertainties, especially with the Broncos, who are starting their third quarterback of the season.
Brett Rypien will get the start under center for Denver. Rypien replaced quarterback Jeff Driskel last week in the final ten minutes of the game. He completed his first eight passes; however, his last attempt was intercepted in the end zone.
Although these are two of the bottom-five offenses in the NFL, there is some value in the prop market. For a matchup of two winless teams, with the Jets a 1.5-point home dog, let’s choose some players instead of their respective teams.
Melvin Gordon Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Running back Melvin Gordon has the most experience of the skill position players on Denver. The two-time Pro Bowler has rushed for 70 or more yards in two out of three games this season. The Jets are a bottom-10 defense against the run, allowing 133 rushing yards per game. With a quarterback who made his NFL debut less than one week ago, it wouldn’t surprise me for the Broncos to rely on their most experienced player.
Jerry Jeudy Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy leads the Broncos in targets with 24. When Brett Rypien entered the game last week, two of his nine pass attempts were to Jeudy. Of Rypien’s 53 passing yards, 22 of them came from the rookie receiver. Jeudy has hit over 52.5 receiving yards in all three games played this season. There isn’t much of a sample size; however, when choosing between Jeudy or tight end Noah Fant’s props, I liked seeing Rypien’s early reliance on Jeudy with his two receptions versus Fant, who had zero.
Tim Patrick Over 2.5 Receptions (-113)
The wide receiver who had the most receptions with three was Tim Patrick in Rypien’s one drive with the Broncos. The receptions were for short yardage, maxing out at five yards gained. This is why we look to the total receptions prop instead of Patrick’s receiving yards. The Broncos receiver has been very reliable when targeted. In the Broncos games versus the Buccaneers and Titans, Patrick had eight receptions on nine targets.
Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+122)
Sam Darnold has had the tough task of facing three top-notch defenses to start his 2020 season. The 49ers have allowed a league-low two passing touchdowns this year. The 49ers and Colts have allowed the least passing yards per game in the NFL this season. The Colts have given up a league-low 132 yards in the air while the 49ers are second to the Colts with 187.3 passing yards allowed per game. This week should be easier for Darnold and the Jets as the Broncos have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game this season with 277. Regarding passing touchdowns, the Broncos have allowed seven. That’s not far behind the league-high of nine.