TNF: Dolphins-Jaguars Player Props
It’s Thursday Night Football between the mustache and the beard. The quarterback of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Gardner Minshew got into a social media battle with Miami Dolphins’ quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick over whose facial hair is better. Since strange props for something like hair only exist in the Super Bowl, we’ll have to look elsewhere in the market for Thursday Night Football.
Gardner Minshew Over 21.5 Pass Completions (-134)
The Miami Dolphins defense gives up 276.5 passing yards per game, ranking seventh-most in the league. Sharps are on the over, getting the total from 44.5 to 47.5 early in the week. High totals lead to passing. Minshew completed 19 passes in the season-opening 27-20 win over the Indianapolis Colts.
However, in the Jaguars 33-30 loss to the Tennessee Titans, Minshew had 30 completions on 45 attempts. If the market is telling me this will be a high scoring game, I am expecting a pass-happy Minshew.
Ryan Fitzpatrick Over 22.5 Pass Completions (-102)
The same concept goes for Fitzpatrick. A rising total results in less running out the clock and more running up the score. Both defenses have struggled as the Jaguars have given up the third-most passing yards per game with 294. As long as Fitzpatrick can avoid throwing interceptions, he should hit this number.
Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions against the Patriots resulting in just 15 completions. In a clean game with zero interceptions against the Bills, Fitzpatrick had 31 completed passes. The Jaguars on defense picked off Colts quarterback Philip Rivers twice in the first game of the season. In game two against Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Jaguars defense had zero interceptions.
James Robinson Rushing/Receiving
Robinson’s rushing prop is currently listed at 68.5 on the FanDuel SportsBook. Although I like this number, I think I’ll like the rushing and receiving prop more when it’s released. As long as this number is around the low 90s, I would buy-in.
Robinson is coming off 120 total yards against the Titans and 90 total yards versus the Colts. The Dolphins have the fourth-worst rushing defense in the NFL. With Robinson rushing for 102 yards against one of last year’s best defenses, the Titans, I have confidence he can hit an over for his combined rushing and receiving yards.
Gardner Minshew Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Dolphins gave up 75 rushing yards to the very mobile Cam Newton in their season opener. Miami was tasked with another mobile quarterback last week in Josh Allen, and in week two, Allen had 18 rushing yards against the Dolphins. Minshew has hit over 16.5 rushing yards in both starts this season with 19 rushing yards in both games.
Anytime Touchdown: Laviska Shenault Jr. (+210)
Rookie wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr. has been utilized in the rushing and receiving game. His first NFL touchdown came in his career debut against the Colts in week one. I love that as a rookie, Shenault has the second-most targets on the team with eight. His 72 receiving yards ranks third on the Jags behind DJ Chark and Keelan Cole.
I also like betting anytime touchdown props more on players who did not score the week before. Shenault has proven he can score (Week 1), he’s proven he’s versatile, and there has been no target regression. Shenault’s ability to score in the ground game and the air makes me think he’s a good bet for an anytime touchdown at +210.