The biggest favorite on the card, Terrance McKinney, faces Erick Gonzalez in a lightweight tilt. Gonzalez lost his UFC debut to 38-year-old veteran Jim Miller 14 seconds into the second round. McKinney has been out of the first round twice in his 16-fight career and was also finished in his last fight but had a string of five straight finishes leading into it. He’s an all-or-nothing fighter but should be too fast and athletic for Gonzalez. At -910, an outright bet on McKinney isn’t worth it, but taking him by KO/TKO or DQ at +120 has value.
No More Smiles
“Smile’N” Sam Alvey has not won a fight since 2018, a string of eight straight. Meanwhile, Michal Oleksiejczuk has had mixed UFC results, going 4-3-1 in his past eight contests. Oleksiejczuk showed some power at light heavyweight, so it’ll be interesting to see if that’s heightened at middleweight. Either way, Alvey is no longer a UFC-level fighter and will most likely lose this contest. The big question in this fight will be how Oleksiejczuk will win. With limited line options, a parlay of an outright Oleksiejczuk win with the above McKinney knockout finish pays +155.
Light Heavyweight Main Event
Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Odds
Odds to Win: Santos +240 | Hill -305
How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ -285 | Submission +550 | Decision +250
Will the fight go the distance? Yes +250 | No -325
Thiago Santos is 38 years old in a division where the big boys have power and speed. Jamahal Hill comes in on the strength of two straight knockouts. Hill’s only loss was to Paul Craig after an injury, and he has a No Contest due to a positive marijuana test. Hill is seven years Santos’s junior and packs a lot of power. Santos has lost four of his past five fights and has looked slower in the past three years. Hill is a sizable favorite and will likely knockout Santos. At -155, Hill by KO/TKO or DQ makes the most sense.
UFC Vegas 59 Picks
Terrance McKinney vs. Erick Gonzalez
McKinney by KO/TKO or DQ (+120)
Sam Alvey vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Parlay Oleksiejczuk with McKinney by KO/TKO or DQ (+155)
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