UFC Vegas 59: Santos vs. Hill Preview & Best Bets

A top ten light heavyweight fight headlines UFC Vegas 59 as Thiago Santos takes on Jamahal Hill.

Date: Saturday, August 6, 2022 | Time: 5:00 p.m. ET

Venue: UFC Apex – Enterprise, Nevada | TV: ESPNews

Slam Dunk

The biggest favorite on the card, Terrance McKinney, faces Erick Gonzalez in a lightweight tilt. Gonzalez lost his UFC debut to 38-year-old veteran Jim Miller 14 seconds into the second round. McKinney has been out of the first round twice in his 16-fight career and was also finished in his last fight but had a string of five straight finishes leading into it. He’s an all-or-nothing fighter but should be too fast and athletic for Gonzalez. At -910, an outright bet on McKinney isn’t worth it, but taking him by KO/TKO or DQ at +120 has value.

No More Smiles

“Smile’N” Sam Alvey has not won a fight since 2018, a string of eight straight. Meanwhile, Michal Oleksiejczuk has had mixed UFC results, going 4-3-1 in his past eight contests. Oleksiejczuk showed some power at light heavyweight, so it’ll be interesting to see if that’s heightened at middleweight. Either way, Alvey is no longer a UFC-level fighter and will most likely lose this contest. The big question in this fight will be how Oleksiejczuk will win. With limited line options, a parlay of an outright Oleksiejczuk win with the above McKinney knockout finish pays +155.

Light Heavyweight Main Event

Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Odds

  • Odds to Win:  Santos +240 | Hill -305

  • How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ -285 | Submission +550 | Decision +250

  • Will the fight go the distance? Yes +250 | No -325

Thiago Santos is 38 years old in a division where the big boys have power and speed. Jamahal Hill comes in on the strength of two straight knockouts. Hill’s only loss was to Paul Craig after an injury, and he has a No Contest due to a positive marijuana test. Hill is seven years Santos’s junior and packs a lot of power. Santos has lost four of his past five fights and has looked slower in the past three years. Hill is a sizable favorite and will likely knockout Santos. At -155, Hill by KO/TKO or DQ makes the most sense.

UFC Vegas 59 Picks

  • Terrance McKinney vs. Erick Gonzalez

    • McKinney by KO/TKO or DQ (+120)

  • Sam Alvey vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

    • Parlay Oleksiejczuk with McKinney by KO/TKO or DQ (+155)

  • Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill

    • Hill by KO/TKO or DQ (-155)