Week 1 NFL Player Props
Player props are a fun way to sweat a game and have proven to be one of the more profitable angles we can take to beat the toughest market in sports, the NFL. Keep in mind you will almost always pay a higher vig for these lines, and many books will limit the amount a bettor can get down on each prop.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow
It might be his maiden voyage on an NFL field, but I expect Joe Burrow to hit the ground running in Zac Taylor’s offense. All reports coming from Bengals camp lead us to believe that the number one pick in this year’s draft has not missed a beat since his Heisman trophy-winning season in Baton Rouge.
He will now get to take advantage of a healthy three-wide receiving set of A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and speedster Jon Ross. Game flow should have Cincinnati playing from behind in this one. While the Chargers boast one of the best defensive fronts in the league, their secondary is beatable, especially with Derwin James being lost for the foreseeable future with a knee injury.
Burrow will more than likely have his fair share of mistakes in this game, as do most rookie’s in their debut, but we should feel confident that he can find pay dirt twice on Sunday.
The Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)
Lions QB Matthew Stafford
The Detroit Lions are catching a lot of sleeper buzz to compete in the NFC North this year, and while that may or may not come to fruition, I expect Matthew Stafford to have a tough go of it in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears.
The news came out on Friday afternoon that Stafford expects to be without top wideout Kenny Golladay (hamstring) for Week 1, leaving Marvin Hall and rookie Quintez Cephus in line for playing time in three-wide sets with Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola.
This will make things even more difficult for Stafford, who is facing a defense he has not cleared the 300-yard threshold against since an overtime game all the way back in Week 6 of the 2015 season. Roster continuity has been key for the Bears secondary, ranking first and 11th in passing defense DVOA the last two seasons.
The Pick: Under 271.5 Passing Yards (-110)
49ers TE George Kittle
My favorite prop on the board also happens to be my favorite DFS play of the entire slate. Last year, the Arizona Cardinals had the worst season in the history of the NFL defending tight ends. Opposing tight ends scored 14 times against Arizona in 2019, and I do not expect that trend to slow down in Week 1 with George Kittle lining up across the field.
Additionally, the San Francisco receiving corps finds itself very thin heading into the season with Deebo Samuel on the shelf, rookie Brandon Aiyuk drawing a questionable tag. Emmanuel Sanders is now playing his football in the Big Easy. Look for Jimmy Garoppolo to target Kittle early and often in a game that has sneaky shootout potential.
The Pick: Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-110)