Week 11 College Football Opening Odds Analysis
Week 11 College Football Opening Odds Analysis
We roll into Week 11 for the college football season this Saturday! How time has flown! As we near the end of the college football season, the stakes get higher, and matchups mean more as races for conference titles get closer. FanDuel luckily has some odds posted on matchups for this weekend’s college football madness that I’ve highlighted below:
University of Wisconsin (-3.5) at University of Michigan, O/U 49.5
The year 2020 has been strange, and college football isn’t immune to the strangeness. While Michigan and Wisconsin were in the news this past week as election battleground states, their teams will pick a battle this weekend in a Big 10 matchup, which will feature a faltering Michigan team against 13th-ranked Wisconsin, who are coming off of a self-imposed COVID lockdown.
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh’s seat is getting a bit hot after losing to both Indiana and their in-state rivals Michigan State. Michigan’s team appears to be a typical Michigan team: extraordinarily strong overall on defense, seemingly with questions at the offensive skill player positions. One issue unique to this season is the lack of offensive line continuity for the Wolverines: they only return one starter from last year. Harbaugh can be forgiven a slight bit due to Michigan’s quarterback, Dylan McCaffrey, opting out of 2020 and leaving Michigan, so Michigan has had to make do with Joe Milton (who threw a total of nine passes prior to this season in his college career) at quarterback. There are question marks abound here on this team that will require Harbaugh to work his magic to get the ship righted on this season.
The Badgers are always that team that will be ranked No. 5 in the AP polls by mid-season that you’ll forget about. They’re the quietest great team in America. Head Coach Paul Chryst has his setup for his team in a traditional Big 10 style of football: A strong ground game behind a mammoth offensive line with a few first-round NFL prospects on it (seriously, I am of the belief that there is no safer pick in the NFL draft for your team to make than a Wisconsin interior offensive lineman) and a sturdy front-7 with a few speedy defensive backs here. The team doesn’t have star running back Jonathan Taylor, now with the Colts, but the system is so set in place that it shouldn’t be an issue, that the team can pick up without him behind that incredible offensive line. It is worth noting that the team is off a COVID-imposed lockdown, however, so tread a bit more carefully with your bets than you otherwise might in the biggest game of the week.
Notre Dame (-13.5) at Boston College, O/U 48.5
We’re going back to preview a Notre Dame game again here because didn’t you enjoy the double-overtime game where the No. 1 team in the country got knocked off by Notre Dame last week? This week we get an All-Catholic matchup in “The Holy War” on Saturday at 3:30 pm.
Quarterback Ian Book and head coach Brian Kelley leave South Bend this week for the land of Will Hunting, Dunkin Donuts, and David Ortiz. Notre Dame might be in for a big of a letdown, defeating Clemson in front of Touchdown Jesus last week 47-40. There’s not much to say about that’s not really known or obvious: They’ve looked dominant, and they’re squarely in play for the college football playoff. It’s Notre Dame. Rudy! Rudy! Rudy! They get their own broadcast network. Shake Down the Thunder from the Sky!
It’s worth noting here that Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley will have his work cut out for him here: Boston College squeaked by Syracuse 16-13 last week and hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2008. One source of motivation could be a payback angle, as BC quarterback Phil Jurkovic, who transferred from Notre Dame to Boston College. Between Jurkovic’s exit from Notre Dame and Hafley trying to build a program up in his first year after taking over for Steve Addazio, the motivation level for Boston College to knock off the Fighting Irish will be massive. Besides, Rudy was actually offsides in the last play of the movie.
Will motivation beat talent? We will see at 3:30 on Saturday!
University of Hawaii (+11.5) at San Diego State University, O/U 52.5
We’re going away from the Power 5 conferences for our last matchup to highlight a near and dear team to every person who wagers on college football: Hawaii. If I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard from a friend, “Ugh! I can’t believe (insert SEC favorite) didn’t cover the 13! OK, let’s get it back with Hawaii. Midnight start, baby!” Well, since it’s San Diego, this game is only at 4:00 pm EST, but the point remains about Hawaii and that magical Midnight EST start that they often have so much.
The Rainbow Warriors come to beautiful San Diego to take on the host Aztecs in a Mountain West showdown. In a way, this will be the opposite of Clemson’s possible letdown spot: The teams are both 2-1 and competing for the conference championship. SDSU has been one of the better teams in the MWC, but Hawaii has repeatedly been a thorn in their side. In the last two seasons, Hawaii has won their matchup against the Aztecs. The Rainbow Warriors will be at maximum motivation as well: the loser of this matchup can effectively kiss the Mountain West championship trophy goodbye, and the Mountain West only gets 4 bowl births, so both teams want to ensure they’re able to continue to be bowl eligible.
San Diego is coming off a 28-17 loss to San Jose State, while Hawaii is riding high off of a 39-33 win against New Mexico State in Manoa last weekend.