Week 11 NFL Player Props
Week 11 NFL Player Props
Another half and half props pick performance last week after going out on a bit of a limb on one of our picks. We hadn’t given much love to the league’s tight ends, so a look at Eric Ebron came about. Sure the Steelers TE had a super friendly matchup with the Bengals pass defense but unfortunately failed to make the four catches we needed to go over the number. Ebron had the targets but not the catches after getting six looks but just two receptions.
Tom Brady, on the other hand, was terrific as expected. Following his worst game of the season against the Saints two weeks ago, Brady torched Carolina in a 23-point win. More importantly, for our purposes, the former Patriot went off for 341 yards passing, plenty more than the 287 needed to hit the over.
We’re still searching for that perfect props week, so what better time than now. As always, these and all your other odds come to you from our good friends at FanDuel.
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook
Dalvin Cook’s been running wilder in Minnesota than Hulkamania ever did. In the very same city, the Hulkster got his wrestling starts with the AWA and Cook is body slamming and leg dropping defenses left and right for the Vikings. The former Florida State standout’s been a one-man wrecking machine lately, firing off a 155-yard rushing average in his past three games. All three divisional matchups, all three wins, with one of those performances coming as a 96 yard game against a very stingy Bears defense. It’s not like the Vikings back just got to the party either; he’s been doing this all year.
No one has more yards on the ground this season than Dalvin Cook. His 5.5 yards per carry leads the league among backs with a minimum of 100 attempts. When Minnesota needs crucial yards, Cook is the guy as his 51 first downs on the ground lead the NFL. Oh ya, he’s also leading the league in rushing touchdowns with 12 on the campaign. The 25-year-old is on his way to a season for the history books.
Cook is averaging a league-best 119 yards per game. If he stays healthy, the talented back could finish with over 1,800 yards. On his current pace, Cook would have the second-best rushing season in Vikings history. Only Adrian Peterson’s 2,097 yard 2012 campaign would be out of reach while eclipsing Peterson’s 1,760 total from 2008.
If Cook can keep up this pace, he’d be the first running back since 2014 to hit the 1,800-yard mark. The last player to do it, DeMarco Murray of the very same Dallas Cowboys franchise Cook matches up with this week. This version of the Cowboys, though, is one Cook and the entire Vikings offense has to be excited about.
Dallas is allowing an NFC-worst 157 rushing yards per game, also second-worst in the league. Giving up five yards per carry ranks America’s team No. 31 in the NFL, and they’ve just had teams run all over them all year. In fact, the Cowboys have given up twice as many rush yards than the league’s top run defense, the New Orleans Saints.
Conversely, Dallas’s pass defense has been much better lately. The Cowboys have clawed their way up to a No. 11 league ranking, allowing just 224.6 yards through the air per game. It seems like keeping the ball out of the hands of Kirk Cousins and into the hands of Dalvin Cook should be the play for Minnesota this week.
The Pick: Over 101.5 rushing yards vs. Dallas (-110)
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
The Colts have kind of been an under the radar team all year. No real stars on offense, playing in a small market, and just a team without a lot of flash. It feels like their working man’s defense doesn’t care too much about flash.
The Colts’ defense has been making the lives of opposing quarterbacks difficult all year long. The Colts boast a league-best opposing quarterback rating of just 78.9. How are they accomplishing this? Well, allowing the second-fewest pass yards at 198.7 per game is a good start. Allowing quarterbacks to complete just 62% of their passes for a No. 5 league ranking helps too. Being tied for second in the NFL with just 11 touchdown passes allowed, and 11 interceptions paints an even clearer picture of the Colts’ strong secondary.
This is the very defense Aaron Rodgers has to visit this week in Indianapolis. But don’t get it twisted; Aaron Rodgers has still very much been, well, Aaron Rodgers again this year.
The Packers’ gun-slinger leads the league with a 116.4 rating, is seventh with 286.4 pass yards per game, and only one other quarterback has more than his 26 touchdown passes this year.
If there is a bit of a chink in his armor, it’s that Rodgers has been slightly less effective on the road this season. Rodgers is averaging 279 yards per game away from Lambeau Field, more than 16 yards less than he’s throwing at home.
Rodgers did have a hard time moving the offense in the first half against a 30th-ranked Jacksonville pass defense last week. It was a game the Packers could have easily dropped before pulling out the 24-20 victory thanks to a fourth-quarter Davante Adams touchdown catch.
The future Hall of Famer certainly isn’t perfect but let’s not fool ourselves here; the Colts defense will have to pitch a near-perfect game to hold Rodgers at bay. That being said, 280 yards passing isn’t a walk in the park and more like a walk in the jungle against this Indy secondary.
The Pick: Under 278.5 passing yards (-110)