Week 13 NFL Player Props
Week 13 NFL Player Props
It finally happened! After weeks and weeks of questing for the chalice of props perfection, the glorious day surprisingly came last week.
Cam Newton’s Patriots looked cooked late against the Cardinals. In a tie game with under four minutes left, Newton threw an unceremonious interception at mid-field, snuffing out the drive. Arizona had excellent field position and only needed a few yards to get into scoring position on the game’s final drive. Had that been it, Newton would be left with 32 rushing yards on the day, nine short of our number for the over. Instead, the Cardinals missed a 45-yard go-ahead field goal, gave the Patriots another drive where New England’s pivot scrambled for a 14-yard run to put us over the number.
In our next game, we needed Mike Evans to put up less than 53 yards from Tom Brady against the Chiefs, and oh how close it was. The Bucs trailed Kansas City by ten with just over six minutes remaining. Evans had two catches for 43 yards on the day so far. For the first play of Tampa’s final drive, Brady went to Evans, but it went incomplete. A few minutes later, in the red zone, Brady found his favorite receiver for the touchdown. Fortunately for us, the Bucs were at the 7-yard line and not the 10-yard line, so Mr. Evans finished at 50 yards receiving on the day, just three yards shy of shattering our prop perfection dreams.
So, the monkey is off our backs, and we’ll try to extend the perfection streak to two weeks with a pair of positive prop picks. As always, these props and all your wagering needs come from our good friends at FanDuel.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders
The Eagles offense has been a complete trainwreck this season—no consistency, minimal firepower, and few big plays. Part of the reason could be the time missed by back Miles Sanders. Sanders, part of a litany of Philly injuries this season, missed three games and was slated to be a focal point of the offense. We should see a gameplan closer resembling that philosophy this week against Green Bay.
The Packers have been one of the worst teams in the league against opposing backs. Green Bay’s 601 receiving yards allowed to running backs is the worst in the NFL. Running backs have caught 68 balls against the Packers, ranking them 27th in the league.
While the NFC North leaders haven’t given up a ton of volume in rushing yards, they have been susceptible to the run. Green Bay has the ninth-worst per carry average in the league, allowing backs to run for 4.6 yards an attempt.
The Packers’ defense has been mediocre at best, floundering in the bottom half of the league against both the pass and run.
Sanders will look to improve on his 72-yard rushing performance from a year ago against the Pack. The former Penn State standout chewed up Green Bay for 6.5 yards per carry in his only career meeting with the Packers.
Even though he’s been out for a chunk of the year, Sanders has looked good when healthy. The 23-year-old has put up 91 or more total yards in five of his eight games, including a 118-yard rushing game against a tough Ravens defense.
While he hasn’t put up big numbers coming out of the backfield this year, Sanders did finish sixth in receiving yards for running backs last season. An impressive rank going up against backs like 1,000-yard receiver Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler, who finished just under the century mark. Sanders 509 yards through the air in 2019 is nothing to sneeze at, and the Eagles’ RB should be able to pad those career numbers this week against Green Bay.
The Pick: Over 91.5 yards from scrimmage (-113)
Lions TE T.J. Hockenson
It could be a brand new day and a brand new offense in Detroit. Since the Lions kicked head coach Matt Patricia to the curb last week, scoring could open up under interim head coach Darrell Bevell. Sure Bevell was calling the plays as the offensive coordinator, but without being shackled by Patricia, the game’s tempo should speed up. That’s good news for their tight end.
T.J. Hockenson is having a breakout season and could breakout even further in a quicker tempo offense under Bevell. Hockenson is already ranked third in the league among tight ends with 530 receiving yards. He could get even more looks this week with top receiving threat Kenny Golladay on the shelf and wideout Danny Amendola walking wounded.
This year, in seven of 11 games, T.J. has gone over 43 receiving yards averaging 64.6 in that span. The former first-round pick has made nine catches on 15 targets for 157 yards in his past two games and looks to be picking up momentum leading into this clash with the Bears.
Hockenson was perfect against Chicago in Week 1, pulling down all five of his targets for 56 yards. Add that to his 47-yard game against the Bears in 2019, and Hockenson’s made it clear he doesn’t shy away from clashing with the Monsters of the midway. The 2020 version has been quite as monstrous lately.
Chicago is on a five-game losing streak, and the defense has looked downright tired as of late. You can’t blame them as the offense has left them out to dry, leaving them on the field a lot longer than usual. In their past two games, the offense is averaging just 23 minutes in time of possession. That’s an awful lot of time to have your defense in the game.
The Bears have particularly had trouble containing opposing tight ends. Chicago is allowing tight ends to catch 5.6 balls per game for a total of 635 yards this year. They rank 30th in receptions and 27th in yards allowed to the position.
Overall the Bears’ pass defense has been average at best of late. Trouble getting to the quarterback and forcing turnovers has been a problem. Chicago’s six interceptions on the year rank fifth-worst in the NFL, and they’re in the bottom half of the league in sacks.
All signs point to the new-look Lions offense having a successful day with Hockeson as a significant focal point.
The Pick: Over 42.5 receiving yards (-110)