Week 3 NFL Player Props
A rash of injuries to many NFL players has given rise to a bit of chaos going into Week 3. That said, where some see chaos, sharper bettors can find opportunity. Here are some that we are highlighting that we think have value.
Colts QB Philip Rivers
Philip Rivers is playing an 0-2 Jets team that is the 31st-ranked offense and 24th-ranked defense in the NFL. The team has issues at all levels of the defense and is very possibly in the process of a rebuild, even if it’s not publicly admitting it.
The game still has an average total of 43.5, with the Colts being 11.5 point favorites, meaning that they have an implied total of 28 points for this game. The Jets do not currently have an edge rusher, nor cornerback on their roster that is even NFL-starter level, per Pro Football Focus. Their two best defenders, coming into the season, Jamal Adams and CJ Mosley, were traded for picks and opted out due to coronavirus.
The Colts have PFF’s No.1 offensive line in football, and Rivers should have all day to throw against the weak Jets secondary. Overall, 235.5 yards is still a pretty low total for Rivers to surpass in a home game against the Jets, and I like him to surpass this on Sunday.
The Pick: Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Bears WR Allen Robinson
Everything lines up for Robinson to have a huge game against the Falcons and finally capitalize on all the targets he’s gotten from Mitch Trubisky. First, the Falcons have allowed 39 and 38 points in their first two games. They are a bad defense by all accounts.
Robinson has had nine targets per game this year, which is a number that is typically given to the most elite wide receivers. The Falcons, down a cornerback on an already bad defense, should likely still give up 30-plus points in this game, and to me, it’s a good value that one of those touchdowns of a 30+ point explosion goes to Robinson.
The Pick: +125 to Score a Touchdown
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson
Another week, another mouth-watering matchup for Wilson, in a game with a projected total of 56.5 points! Wilson, who is now on the verge of being the MVP front-runner, has played incredibly the first two weeks and is going into what should be his easiest matchup yet.
The Cowboys cannot generate a pass rush and they may be without defensive end Demarcus Lawrence this week due to injury — on top of already losing defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to injury before the season.
Linebackers Sean Lee and Leighton Vander Esch also missing this game. If this were not enough, the Cowboys secondary is banged up as well: Their No. 1 cornerback Chidobe Awuzie has been ruled out, and their second cornerback, Trevon Diggs, is questionable.
They have two total sacks all season as a team with only seven total quarterback knockdowns. Wilson has thrown for 322 and 288 passing yards, respectively, this season, and I like him to do it again this week.
The Pick: Over 285.5 Passing Yards
Rams TE Tyler Higbee
I think this line is a touch high for Higbee against what is supposed to be a vaunted Buffalo defense. First, that vaunted defense played against two of the bottom feeders of NFL offenses: the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins.
Now they get a real test in a Sean McVay coached offense. Higbee’s yardage prop is attractive for several reasons. First, the point of attack for the Rams. Buffalo’s All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davius White, is set to shadow Robert Woods. Higbee, however, is set to catch passes in the middle of the field, where Buffalo’s starting linebackers, Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, look to miss the game.
Second, the Rams have struggled to cover tight ends, as Mike Gesicki had eight catches for 130 yards against them last week. Last, the Bills still do have a great front-7 on defense, and the Rams’ offensive line is still a point of weakness for them, so it’s likely that shorter-area passes to Higbee might be preferable for McVay and quarterback Jared Goff than longer pass plays that take more time to develop. Higbee should see the 4-5 receptions that it would take to make this over hit on Sunday.
The Pick: Over 53.5 Receiving Yards