What Are Purdue’s Big Ten Odds? Season Win Total Preview & Pick
The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a monumental season (9-4) with their most wins since Kyle Orton was quarterbacking for Joe Tiller (2003) and their most road wins (five) in nearly 80 years. They finished strong, going 5-1 down the stretch, including an upset of No. 3 Michigan State and a bowl win over an SEC foe, Tennessee. What do Jeff Brohm & Company do for an encore now that expectations have risen?
Purdue Boilermakers 2022 Big Ten Preview
2021 Record: 5-7 (4-5); Big Ten Finish: 5th B1G West
AP Poll: NR (No. 34) | Coaches Poll: NR (No. 49) | PFF: No. 35 | SP+: No. 34
Head Coach: Jeff Brohm: 28-29 (20-22) | 6th Season | Overall: 58-39
Offensive Coordinator: Brian Brohm (6th Season)
Co-Defensive Coordinator: Ron English (2nd Season) | Mark Hagen (1st Season/2nd w/ Purdue)
Futures Odds @ FanDuel
National Championship Odds: +25000
B1G Championship Odds: +4000
Win 10 Games: +1000
Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 +125 | UNDER 7.5 -145
2022 Sneak Peak
Origin of Optimism: By far the most competent passing offense in the Big Ten West.
Cause for Concern: Possibly the worst rushing game among all Power Five programs.
Breakout Player: WR Tyrone Tracy, Junior
It’s a disappointing 2022 if they fail to make a bowl for the third time in four seasons.
It’s a successful 2022 if the Boilermakers have back-to-back winning seasons.
X-Factor: How do they replace absolute studs David Bell and George Karlaftis?
The schedule is more manageable than a year ago, as Penn State replaces Ohio State at home and a trip to Syracuse replaces Notre Dame. With tough opponents like Penn State and Iowa at home, while borderline bowl teams Syracuse, Maryland, Illinois, and Indiana are on the road, the schedule is set up so that anywhere from four to nine wins is pretty feasible.
Over/Under 7.5 Wins
Heading into last season, the Boilermakers had won fewer games than the previous season, three straight years going from seven (in Brohm’s first season) to six to four to two (COVID year), before last season’s remarkable turnaround. Are we suddenly to believe that winning eight-plus games—which Purdue has done once in 14 seasons—is now the new normal in West Lafayette?
It’s hard to imagine that losing a dynamic receiver like Bell, who was dominant in moving the chains, not to mention speedster Milton Wright, won’t impact the passing attack. Or that losing a first-round pick edge rusher like Karlaftis, who commanded double teams, won’t hurt a front seven that relies on being aggressive. Co-DC Brad Lambert also departs after making an immediate impact in his lone year in West Lafayette. They finished 25th in defensive SP+, which I don’t envision happening again.
To go over the season-win total of 7.5, the Boilermakers would have to hit their ceiling (8-9 wins), while I believe somewhere in the middle (6-7 wins) is far more likely.
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