Chiefs-Texans Player Props
The 2020 NFL season kicks off Thursday night with the Houston Texans traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs. This article isn’t to help you pick a team or a total. We are digging deeper into the FanDuel Sportsbook for some props!
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+112)
While most quarterbacks have a passing touchdown prop of 1.5, the former NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes gets the boost to 2.5. Last season, Mahomes faced the Texans twice and hit the over of 2.5 in both games. In game one on October 13, 2019, Mahomes threw three touchdowns against the Texans.
In the AFC Divisional game, Mahomes racked up five touchdowns in the air. Houston’s injury-prone Pro Bowl defensive end JJ Watt did play in both those games. Last season the Texans passing defense struggled the entire year allowing an average of 267.3 passing yards per game, ranking 29th in the NFL.
Texans QB Deshaun Watson Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-110)
This isn’t my favorite prop of the game; however, if choosing between Watson’s 266.5 passing yards or Mahomes’ passing yards prop of 301.5, I’d rather go with Watson. In both games against the Chiefs last season, Watson threw for 280 and 388 passing yards. The passing yards prop for this game is likely in response to the loss of the Texans’ leading receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins joined the Arizona Cardinals in the preseason; however, it wasn’t just Hopkins who helped give the Texans a 31-24 regular-season win over the Chiefs last year.
In that game, he had just 55 receiving yards on nine receptions. Wide receiver Will Fuller will take on the role of WR1. As long as he can stay healthy, Fuller is capable of putting on a 100-receiving yard performance. He did it twice last year, even with Hopkins on the field. As for Mahomes, despite the Texans defense ranking bottom five last year, Mahomes put up 273 passing yards in the regular-season matchup between these two teams.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This number is relatively low in comparison to Kelce’s 2019 numbers. Last year, Kelce had over 68.5 receiving yards in 10 out of the Chiefs’ 16 regular-season games. In the AFC Divisional game, Kelce had 134 receiving yards against the Texans. Although wide receiver Tyreek Hill is the Chiefs’ leading wide receiver, Kelce still led the team in receiving yards last season with 1,229.
The targets are there and Kelce won the targets battle versus Hill last season 136 to 89. Hill’s receiving yards prop of 71.5 may seem low because of his ceiling; however, Hill only hit the over on that number six times last year. Kelce seems like the more reliable bet here.
Texans RB David Johnson Over 21.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Let’s take a chance on a running back. Prior to missing 15 games in 2017, due to meniscus damage in his left knee, David Johnson was one of the best dual-threat running backs in the NFL. The Texans acquired Johnson in the Hopkins trade. Houston’s offensive success could be reliant on Johnson’s production this year.
Even when Johnson was struggling in Arizona last season, he should hit this over if he’s included in the passing game. When thrown the ball three or more times last year, Johnson had over 21.5 receiving yards in all five of those games. If the ball was passed to Johnson at least two times, he hit the over 21.5 receiving yards six out of seven times.
Anytime Touchdown Long Shot: Texans TE Darren Fells (+360)
Texans tight end Darren Fells signed a two-year $7 million contract to stay with the Texans in early March. Although Fells has mostly been known for his run blocking, he set career highs in every major receiving category last year with 34 catches for 341 yards and seven touchdowns on 48 targets. Fells’ 12 red-zone targets were second-most among Houston pass catchers last season. Betting on Fells as a long shot anytime touchdown prop seems like a smart risky play.