Clippers vs Mavericks Game 5 Simulation, Odds, and Preview
The Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks match up for Game 5 of their best-of-seven first-round series Tuesday night with the series tied at two games apiece. Clippers are once again 6-to-7-point favorites as the Luka Doncic-led Mavericks look to shock the bubble.
Let’s look at where the value is at in this one.
- Clippers: -290
- Mavericks: +235
- Clippers -6.5: -110
- Mavericks +6.5: -110
- Over 235.5: -110
- Under 235.5: -110
Key Points to Consider
Outlook: If the Clippers don’t want to be on the wrong end of a first-round upset, Paul George has to be better. George is the first player to shoot under 25 percent from the field in three straight playoff games since Bob Cousy in 1960 (minimum 10 field goal attempts per game). For someone referred to as Playoff P, that’s just not right.
George is projected to finish Game 5 with 20 points (44% FG), 7 rebounds and 3 assists.
Luka’s World: Luka Doncic had a 40-point triple double in Game 4 to lead Dallas to a thrilling overtime victory. They found a way to win with Kristaps Porzingis out with injury, a huge variable heading into a Game 5 that has Porzingis listed as questionable. The Clippers have the fifth-best defense in the league, but Doncic made the defense look extremely porous in Game 4.
Defense: The Clippers, as mentioned above, have had a consistent defense all season. They hold opponents to 44.1% shooting and create havoc on the perimeter, especially. With Patrick Beverly still out, though, the Clippers’ defense has clearly fallen off relatively. Dallas is shooting 50.2% from the field this series.
For Dallas, Luka Doncic is projected to finish with 27 points (46% FG), 9 assists, 8-to-9 rebounds, 1 steal, and 5 TOs.
For Los Angeles, Kawhi Leonard is projected to finish with 25 points (49% FG), 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 TOs.
Mavericks to cover.
Two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. Average final score in simulations is 117 – 115, in favor of the Clippers. Dallas covers a 6.5-point spread in close to 64 percent of simulations.
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