Is it reasonable to bet Dustin Johnson? Unfortunately, I think the answer is no now at 7.5-1 after being 20 to one last week to win the Northern Trust.
When you go out and win a PGA tour event by 11 strokes and getting to 30 under par like DJ did last week, it looked like he was playing a video game. The public sentiment is going to change on you quite quickly. And while Dustin Johnson has one of the highest ceilings on the face of the earth, when it comes to the world of golf, it feels like you’re chasing another similar outcome if you bet him this week at such a short number.
Can Dustin Johnson contend? Of course he can. He’s playing beautifully, but to expect him to go out and shoot 30 under par again, to win a golf tournament by 11 to absolutely have everything go right for him. It’s probably asking a little bit too much. And now you’re getting the wrong side of the number. If you are still 20-1, great running back out there again, but now crowned as the number one player in the world, yet again, you’re paying the full premium for what you saw last week at seven and a half to one.
And while he has the highest ceiling like I mentioned, he has one of the lowest floors on the PGA tour. So for me, me as much as I love Dustin Johnson, as much as I think he can win any golf tournament that he plays in. Trying to back him at seven and a half to one after coming off a week of 20 to one is just not going to happen for me this week at the BMW championship.
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