Fandex NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Buys
I still don’t know how we got here, but we are down to 15 games left in the NCAA Tournament. It’s been a trip too, underdogs are cashing at an incredible rate, top seeds are falling, and the Gonzaga Bulldogs are holding on to their undefeated season.
Chances are your bracket is long since busted, which means that all our focus can be directed to the Fandex sports exchange. We’re taking a look at market prices and helping you figure out which teams are worth your investment!
Fandex Price: 13.89
Predicted Win Total: 2.84
We had previously recommended getting on the Baylor Bears, but the market has not yet adjusted to reflect how well this team is positioned. Fandex calculated Baylor’s predicted win total at 2.84, which means that a victory against the Villanova Wildcats would guarantee ROI. There’s plenty of reasons to believe that Baylor gets it done in the Sweet 16 and eclipses their win total.
Baylor’s offense is incredibly efficient. They rank third in the nation in offensive efficiency and have relied on their offense to carry them in the conference tournament and now the NCAA Tournament. Baylor is averaging 80.9 points per game this calendar month and has put points on good defenses, which the Villanova Wildcats are not. The Wildcats rank 175th in defensive rating, when adjusted for opponent, is still 72nd in the NCAA. Nova has had a relatively unobstructed path to the Sweet Sixteen and should get a wake-up call.
Baylor is 7.5 point chalk and should have no problems putting up points against the Wildcats and moving on to the second round. That means that Baylor surpasses their predicted win total, and their share price should climb above 13.89. Buy the Baylor Bears.
Fandex Price: 13.01
Predicted Win Total
Predicted Win Total: 2.33
Another #1 seed whose Fandex price does not yet reflect their position in the bracket is the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan’s spot in the Elite Eight is not guaranteed, but there’s reason to believe they can’t past the Florida State Seminoles and their 2.33 predicted win total.
The Seminoles are solid on both ends of the court. They have the 29th offensive rating and 115th defensive rating when adjusted for opponents improve to 14th and 31st. For all the things the Seminoles do right, the Michigan Wolverines do things a little better. Michigan checks in at 17th in offensive rating and 84th in defensive rating. When adjusted, Michigan has the eighth-ranked offense and ninth-ranked defense.
The betting market at FanDuel Sportsbook implies that Michigan is the right team to back. The Wolverines are 2 point favorites and -142 to win.
Florida State and Michigan are both playing elite defensive basketball. The Seminoles hold opponents to 33.6% shooting, and Wolverines opponents have been limited to 37.6%. This line reflects how tight this game will be defensively, but we expect the Wolverines to make the clutch shots late in the game. Wolverines win and see their Fandex price soar.
Fandex Price: 15.73
The Houston Cougars have seen their Fandex price climb more than the previously mentioned teams, but their true value has not yet been achieved.
The Cougars get an ideal matchup with the Syracuse Orange, as Houston’s scoring strength is Syracuse’s biggest inefficiency. On average, Houston gets 27.0 points per game from beyond the arc, which represents 35.4% of their points. The Orange rank 323rd in opponents’ percent of points from three-point range. They allow an average of 37.1% of points to come from long distance. Through two tournament games, that number has skyrocketed to 49.3%. Granted, Syracuse’s opponents have been playing from behind, and therefore will be taking more shots from three, but Syracuse has shown an inability to defend against the three.
Scoring from three is also a Syracuse strength and what they’ve relied on to get to the Sweet 16, but the Cougars defense is much more effective at limiting scoring from beyond the arc. Houston ranks 104th in opponents’ percent of points from three-point range, limiting opponents to an average of 28.7% points from three.
Houston’s defense will be the difference against the Orange. We expect the Cougars to claw their way into the Elite Eight and their Fandex price to climb even further.