The American League Division Series continues Tuesday night in Florida as the Tampa Bay Rays host the Houston Astros in Game 4. Tampa Bay won game 3, 10-3, to fight off elimination and keep the postseason alive.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
- Houston Astros: -235
- Tampa Bay Rays: +200
- Houston Astros -1.5: -138
- Tampa Bay Rays +1.5: +118
- Over 7.5: -116
- Under 7.5: -104
What to Watch For
Back At It: This will be Justin Verlander’s second start of this postseason. In his last three starts, he’s 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. In Game 1 of the series, he pitched seven innings, allowing just one hit and zero runs.
Bats: Tampa Bay finally got their bats going in Game 3 as the series shifted to Florida. They got big hits from Kevin Kiermaier, Jo-Man Choi, Willy Adames and Brandon Lowe, all recording their first HRs of the postseason.
First Start: This will be Diego Castillo’s first postseason start this year, but third appearance. His last outing was a relief effort in Game 2 when he threw 1.2 scoreless innings, giving up one hit and one walk. He is 8-5 overall at Tropicana Field.
Justin Verlander is projected to pitch six-to-seven innings for Houston, giving up six hits and three runs. The Rays average 1.02 HRs per sim off Verlander.
Diego Castillo is projected to pitch a shade over five innings for Tampa Bay, giving up six hits and three runs. The Astros average 1.09 HRs per sim off Castillo.
The OVER hits in close to 60 percent of simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick. Odds-makers give the OVER a 53.7% chance of happening.
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