NFL Week 10 Opening Odds Analysis
NFL Week 10 Opening Odds Analysis
Let’s take a look at a few games that are sure to draw bettors attention for Week 10. We will just be discussing the matchups; if you are looking for more concrete predictions and projections, be sure to check back throughout the week for our game picks.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Odds: Titans -2.5, O/U 50.5
The 5-3 Indianapolis Colts are coming off a loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon. They looked somewhat dominant in the first half despite the meager 10-7 lead but fell apart in the second half as the Ravens scored 16 unanswered points. Indianapolis lost tight end Jack Doyle to a concussion, adding to their beat up skill position groups. We all know Marlon Mack was lost for the season, but T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell, the two starting wide receivers, were both also sidelined for this contest. Hilton may make his way back to join the recently returned Michael Pittman Jr. for Week 10, but we will not know for sure until the final injury report on Friday.
The 6-2 Tennessee Titans laid the smackdown on the Chicago Bears in Week 9, once again exposing them as more pretender than contender. They won the game 24-17, but the game really was not as close as the final score indicates as the Titans were up 24-3 with just over eight minutes left in the game. Tennessee lost guard Robert Saffold during the contest and will need him back for Week 10 against an impressive Colts defensive front. This is a battle for the AFC South crown, as if one of these two teams can win their two head-to-head contests over the next three weeks, they will be in the driver’s seat for the coveted automatic berth for the playoffs (given to division winners).
Right now, -2.5 on the Titans looks like a very fair number. There should be considerable action on both sides, but the Titans appear to be attracting the early sharp action. The juice has been pushed to -114 overnight and should be -120 by Monday afternoon. This suggests that this line may move to -3 sooner rather than later, so if you have your heart and/or mindset on the Titans for Week 10, this is something to bear in mind. The 50.5 number is a little more perplexing, especially for a divisional battle. These teams could easily hit this number if the Titans offense is humming along, as their defense will not be able to stop a Colts offense forced into an aggressive passing attack. The two teams combine for 55 points scored per game but combine to allow just 45.1 per contest.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Odds: Rams -1.5, O/U 55.5
The Seattle Seahawks have dropped to 6-2 on the season after an embarrassing 44-34 loss to the Buffalo Bills. They were exposed for having a horrendous defense once again, as Shaq Griffin’s steep drop off in play has left them with a cornerback room that struggles to stop anyone. The teams ‘are forced to go pass-heavy because the Seahawks are ahead’ narrative took a hit this weekend, as the Bills stepped on the Seahawks throats via the pass all contest despite leading 14-0 after the first quarter. Jamal Adams returned on Sunday, but the team is going to need Chris Carson to return to the lineup to have the necessary balance to keep their offense at its explosive best.
The Los Angeles Rams are 5-3 on the season. However, their wins have come against a ragtag group of opponents that includes the entire NFC East and the crumbling and stumbling Chicago Bears. They have lost every game against teams projected to make the playoffs and need a marquee win for bettors and oddsmakers to start taking them seriously. Their Week 9 bye gave them an extra week to prepare for Seattle, so we should see them be competitive in the home contest.
I think -1.5 is a fair number for this contest when we consider that the Seahawks are on the road and that their records are just one game apart. With that said, the early action has come in on the Seattle Seahawks. Yes, it is true that Seattle also draws the casuals, but overnight line movement on a Sunday is usually spurred by sharp action. The early action has also been on the under for this contest. 55.5 in an insane-looking number for a divisional battle, but is still likely to see significant action on both sides. The over is 3-1 in the last three contests between these two teams, with each of those three contests seeing more than 56 points scored.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Odds: Ravens -6.5, O/U 41
The 6-2 Baltimore Ravens rallied to defeat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9 but were exposed on both sides of the ball once again. Things should get better on both ends by the stretch run of the season, but it still concerns to see. They have a get right contest on their hands this week against a struggling New England team. but will need to be careful not to play down to the level of their competition. The Ravens should be looking to use this contest as a springboard to a better second half of the season but will need to continue to figure things out on the defensive side of the ball after some disappointing efforts this season. If both units can round into form by the end of the season, they will be the team everyone thought they would be when they were listed as the SuperBowl favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs earlier this season.
New England has struggled this season and now sits at 2-5. This was expected after losing five starters to COVID-19 opt-outs (if we include Marqise Lee, who would undoubtedly be starting right now), and another four defensive starters and two offensive starters (including Tom Brady) this offseason. Cam Newton’s hot play to open the season gave us all false hope, but this is the Patriots team many expected to see. Newton is a talented dual-threat quarterback, but he has never been able to elevate his receiver talent. Cam should be highly motivated for a matchup with Lamar Jackson, but there is only so much this version of the Patriots offensive line will be able to do against the Ravens pass rush.
If you have any interest in the Ravens at -6.5, you are going to need to act now. The overnight action has catapulted the juice to -134 at FanDuel, which means this number is going to -7, perhaps by the time you read this. There is still value on both sides at -7, but the value lean at-6.5 is obvious based on the early money. The over/under at 41 seems like an error line for a game with a 6.5 point spread, but the early action has been on the under. Somebody somewhere knows something, as the juice coming in on the under on a contest with such a low total, especially with the Ravens involved, suggests that something is up; perhaps an early meteorological forecasts (which are hard to trust six days away) is the culprit.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Odds: Vikings -2.5, O/U 44.5
This is going to be an interesting NFC North contest. The Minnesota Vikings sit at 3-5 on the season but are a few plays away from a winning record. They have had a tough schedule for most of the season and have to be thanking their lucky stars that they are getting the Week 10 version of the Chicago Bears instead of the early season version. Minnesota is dealing with some injuries and general incompetence by Kirk Cousins, but have been able to ride Dalvin Cook’s incredible play to two straight wins. With the way he is playing, the Chicago Bears are going to have a tough time containing him despite having some tremendous playmakers. Whether the Vikings win or lose this game will not only be on Cook’s shoulders, however, as Cousins may be asked to make a few plays in order to sustain drives.
The Chicago Bears now sit at 5-4 on the season and have a prove it date on tap with a hot Minnesota Vikings team. Nothing is going right in Chicago, with David Montgomery adding to their despair after being knocked out of Week 9’s contest with a concussion. He is going to be questionable for Monday night’s contest if they are lucky and may be ruled out altogether. The Bears are already without backup Tarik Cohen, so they could be in a tough spot if Montgomery cannot get cleared by their final practice session on Saturday. It does help that this game is in Chicago (as he will not need to travel), but the Bears are going to have their work cut out for them regardless. They have only one notable win all season, but it came against a strong opponent in Tampa Bay. Similar to Tampa Bay, you never really know what version of the Bears you are going to get on a weekly basis. Matt Nagy will be hoping it is the good version.
The Vikings have attracted the bulk of the early action and also have the sharps on their side despite opening as 2.5 point road favorites. Yes, the Vikings are in better form, but this is a surprising line, to say the very least. We should see some line movement here, and the early juice may not be indicative of which way this line eventually moves. This will be an interesting one to monitor. At 44.5, the over has also attracted the early action, with the juice being bumped from -110 to -114. The total will likely be moved by Wednesday, so it may be wise to get your lean in before that happens if the juice suggests it will move in an unfavorable direction.