NFL Week 13 Opening Odds Analysis
NFL Week 13 Opening Odds Analysis
Let’s take a look at a few games that are sure to draw the attention of bettors for Week 13. We will just be discussing the matchups; if you are looking for more concrete predictions and projections, be sure to check back throughout the week for our game picks.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Washington at Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: Steelers -10.5, O/U n/a
Washington looked good against Dallas on Turkey Day and will look to keep up their momentum and possibly catch the Pittsburgh Steelers looking past them in what could be an (on-field) trap game. Alex Smith has been quite the story and already has his name engraved on the comeback player of the year award. Despite a 4-7 record, Washington is firmly in the mix to win the NFC East, currently sitting in second place, a spot they should hold onto following Week 12’s edition on Monday Night Football. Washington’s defense has not been the same since losing Matt Ioannidis for the season and was dealt another blow when they lost Landon Collins for the year. Luckily they have depth on the defensive line and at safety, but this team’s record could look very different if they had a healthy front seven. The Steelers pose a potential roadblock to their efforts to win the division, but with the Giants losing Daniel Jones for at least a week, Dallas having Andy Dalton be Andy Dalton, and the Philadelphia Eagles having a tough schedule that concludes hosting Washington, the Football Team essentially controls their own destiny.
The 10-0 Pittsburgh Steelers keep on rolling. They have not played yet in Week 12, and with the way the Baltimore Ravens outbreak has been mishandled, they may not play in Week 12 at all. An undefeated season no longer just seems like a fun possibility, as pundits are now debating whether or not they can achieve the perfect 19-0 season. Pittsburgh has looked excellent on both sides of the ball this season, but it is the defensive unit that can put them over the top in the postseason. The offense is explosive enough to keep any game competitive, but as others have opined, if the Steelers can get one more stop than whoever their opponent is, they have a chance to win against anyone. Pittsburgh will hope to have star defensive end Stephon Tuitt and running back (a cancer survivor) James Conner back for Week 13. They were among the Steelers players who were placed on the reserve/COVID list this past weekend but may not be eligible if they tested positive and have symptoms. Regardless, the Steelers should have the goods to pick up this win even without two of their stars. They will just need to be careful not to play down to the level of their opponent.
While the over/under for this contest has not yet been posted since the Steelers have yet to play in Week 12, we can likely expect something in the 44 to 46 range from FanDuel. The point spread for this contest is currently sitting at -10.5 on Pittsburgh. It is certainly a number the Steelers should be able to cover, but as stated above, the Steelers are still going to have to bring it in order to do so. This contest could very well turn out to be a defensive battle if Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin choose not to keep their feet on the gas. This should be one of the more popular contests for bettors to attack this week for a multitude of reasons that have very little to do with the value. However, expect sharp action to have their hands on line changes for both the points spread and for the over/under once it is posted. There are likely to be some highly definitive leans that bettors will look to exploit.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Odds: Rams -1.5, O/U 46.5
The 7-4 Los Angeles Rams suffered an embarrassing loss to a severely depleted San Francisco 49ers team on Sunday. They will look to bounce back against a stumbling Arizona Cardinals team that sat in first place in the division after Week 10 but may need to rely on their defense to propel them to a win. Jared Goff and the Rams offense as a whole just have not been the same since they had Todd Gurley playing at an All-Pro level. Losing Brandin Cooks certainly did not help matters, as the team no longer has a feared field stretcher to loosen up boxes. The Rams will be without middle linebacker Micah Kiser for at least two more weeks and are set to be without star left tackle Andrew Whitworth for the rest of the regular season. The expanded playoffs all but ensure that unless the Rams go on an extended losing streak that they will be tasting some postseason action. Seeding will be key to their wild card round prospects, especially with the ‘winner’ of the NFC East being available to match up with.
The 6-5 Arizona Cardinals are one miraculous DeAndre Hopkins reception away from being on a three-game losing streak. They have slipped out of first place in the division with their two consecutive losses and no longer look like a team that can make some noise in the playoffs. They look certain to make the expanded postseason, but it is clear that the defensive unit is not the same without superstar pass rusher Chandler Jones. Kyler Murray is no longer playing at an MVP level and will need to work his way back there if Arizona wants to advance past the wild card round. The Cardinals currently sit in seventh place in the conference, one game ahead of the 5-6 Minnesota Vikings. They will need to keep their foot on the gas down the stretch of the season, as one or two more missteps could leave a team that showed so much early-season promise on the outside looking in. A Week 13 win against the Los Angeles Rams will put them in the driver’s seat as far as controlling their own destiny with NFC East opponents on deck for Week 14 and Week 15.
This NFC West Showdown is the game of the week. The point spread is small enough that we should see a flurry of action on both sides. However, the sharps are likely to have a definitive lean here, meaning the spread is likely to see movement early in the week. The over/under is also set well enough to entice action on both sides, and while there is expected to be some movement in the number, it may not be as volatile as some of the other games currently scheduled for Week 13.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: Chiefs -13.5, O/U 48.5
The Denver Broncos’ season was over before it even began, as they lost Von Miller for the season with an ankle injury. The star pass-rusher says he is now healthy after surgery, but it remains to be seen whether or not the Broncos can or even want to bring him back. With the salary cap expected to shrink following this season, Denver may be forced to part ways with Miller if they wish to keep franchise-tagged safety Justin Simmons and strong offensive tackle Garett Bolles in town. Denver has had some positives to take away from the season but need to decide whether they are a contender or a pretender heading into the 2021 season. They are already out of the playoff mix, but their season took an embarrassing blow when they were forced to start Kendall Hinton at quarterback in Week 12. Drew Lock and the rest of the quarterback room were placed on the reserve/COVID list after Jeff Driskel tested positive, just a day after the entire room met to watch film where the protocols were not followed. Denver will need Lock back if they want to have any chance at remaining competitive.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been unbelievable this season. As echoed here before, they are patiently waiting for the Pittsburgh Steelers to suffer a loss, a hope that took a major hit with Baltimore’s play falling off a cliff and Lamar Jackson testing positive for COVID. Kansas City has the stronger strength of victory and strength of schedule, giving them the tiebreak should the Steelers somehow drop a regular-season game. Kansas City looked incredible in Week 12, dismantling the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in embarrassing fashion. They took their foot off the pedal in the second half, allowing the final score to make the game look much closer than it actually was. Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are going to present major problems for the Broncos cornerbacks, especially if Bryce Callahan is unable to be active for Week 13 after leaving Week 12 with a foot injury.
This is a rather interesting line that could shrink if and when Drew Lock is cleared from the COVID list. As mentioned above, he was placed on this list for breaking protocol and not for contracting the virus. If Kendall Hinton is forced to be under center yet again, this spread will skyrocket closer to the 18 or 19 point mark. Kansas City always attracts a lot of bettor interest, but we could see bettors become even more aggressive depending on what unfolds in Denver. Sportsbooks like FanDuel will need to be careful not to overreact to the official status of Drew Lock, as there is enough reason to believe that the Chiefs can cover 13.5 points even with Lock in the lineup. With that being said, this line will likely see some movement by Thursday; the first day Lock is expected to be eligible to come off the reserve/COVID list.