Our Model’s Favorite Week 12 NFL Bets

Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 12 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!

The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five- and four-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.

Five-Star Predictions:

New England Patriots (+124) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Like Mark Twain’s supposed obituary, early reports of New England’s demise were greatly premature. Yes, their backs are against the wall after losing to a Houston team that had Deshaun Watson play brilliantly enough to beat them, but this is typically where head coach Bill Belichick shines the most. Cam Newton has started to look like himself again finally after his COVID case, which slowed down his production earlier in the year, and he’s starting to show proficiency in the passing game connecting with his favorite targets: wide receivers Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd.

The Cardinals are 6-4, and while Kyler Murray is this year’s Lamar Jackson in terms of commanding an offense based on a lethal run game, their offense is fairly one dimensional: they don’t feature tight ends, and while they have a running game, their passing offense is throwing to DeAndre Hopkins 14 times per game and Christian Kirk 10 times per game. Anyone who has watched New England knows that Hopkins will be doubled and Kirk will see Stephon Gilmore, and Belichick will make Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury beat him with players other than Hopkins and Kirk. The Cardinals’ defense has also been suspect this year, especially in the run game, which can be seen as New England’s strength this year. Stylistically, it’s not a great match-up for Arizona.

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

Last week, the Panthers’ defense feasted on a toothless Detroit Lions team and provided backup, former XFL quarterback PJ Walker with short fields to work on, leading to a 20-0 victory. The Vikings were in a letdown spot after playing on short rest against a Cowboys team off a bye who is still (shockingly) in the playoff hunt in the NFC East. The model seems to agree that things should revert here in this game. The Panthers are 4-7 and will likely have quarterback Teddy Bridgewater back, but still have a bottom-barrel defense of almost all rookies and are missing running back/weapon Christian McCaffrey. The Vikings’ defense is also noticeably young, but under defensive mastermind head coach Mike Zimmer, the team has made strides over the last few weeks. Even with star wide receiver Adam Thielen out after testing positive with COVID-19, the Vikings don’t look to miss a beat here and should take care of business at U.S. Bank Stadium behind a strong performance from running back Dalvin Cook and rookie wide receiver Justin Jefferson.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-5.5)

Sometimes, even on a “square play,” the square play is the right side. This is one such case. Look, the Bears have a quarterback controversy, the slowest running back in the NFL in David Montgomery, a below-average offensive line, one-star wide receiver in Allen Robinson, and a particularly good defense. The Packers have a bad run defense that Montgomery isn’t quick enough to beat routinely. They also have a good secondary, importantly, featuring ascendant star cornerback Jaire Alexander, who is likely to travel with Robinson.

The Bears are going to have a hard time getting points on the board unless Darnell Mooney or Jimmy Graham turn into the 1995 version of Jerry Rice. The flipside is an MVP-front running, pissed off Aaron Rodgers who just lost in overtime to a Colts team on America’s game of the week in the 4:00 p.m. slot on national television last week. The team was in position for Rodgers’s magic until wide receiver Marques Valdez-Scantling fumbled a kick return last week, setting up the Colts in an advantageous position to kick a field goal in overtime to steal a victory. An irritated Rodgers with a healthy Aaron Jones in his backfield and a Chicago Bears team who the Packers have owned a matchup within the Rodgers era makes this line of -5.5 seem a bit short.