Our Model’s Favorite Week 6 NFL Bets
SportsGrid Betting Model Predictions: Week 6
Our Betting Model predictions at SportsGrid have highlighted some games for Week 6 that may represent some value for bettors looking to have some action on the craziness that will surely ensue this weekend!
The SportsGrid Betting Model lists sides and over/unders on a five-star system, with five stars being the highest likelihood, down to a listing not having stars as games that are too close to call. This week we have a plethora of five-star games, which means there should be a lot of value to be had. I’ve highlighted some of them below.
Note: This game may not play after a member of the Falcons’ staff tested positive for COVID-19.
Minnesota Vikings Moneyline -204
The SportsGrid five-star pick for the Atlanta-Minnesota game this weekend is the moneyline on Minnesota. There’s often a bounce-back game after a head coach is fired like Atlanta’s Dan Quinn was after losing to Carolina last week, but unfortunately, the Falcons are running into a team that is in the middle of finding their identity who are playing Atlanta just a game after being beaten at the last second by Russell Wilson and the Seahawks on national television on Sunday Night Football.
The Vikings have new blood in letting Kirk Cousins toss the ball all over the yard to Adam Thielen and rookie Justin Jefferson, which allows them to make up for a defense that is starting rookies all over the place. The Falcons still have Julio Jones banged up and breakout wide receiver Calvin Ridley not at 100% for this game. One other wrinkle here for the Vikings: Mike Zimmer is the winningest coach in the NFL against the spread in his tenure as a head coach, and Kirk Cousins has historically played his best football in 1:00 p.m. games. This all points to the Vikings as the play here.
Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers Under 51
The SportsGrid five-star pick for the AFC North clash of rivals is taking the under 51 points. It doesn’t need to be stated that AFC North games are typically absolutely brutal affairs. The Browns are flying high, but Pittsburgh’s defense has been absolutely dominant this year. The Steelers are playing at home and have yet to allow over 30 points this year, only allowing the Texans and Eagles to top 20 points in garbage time.
The game sets up stylistically awfully for Cleveland as the Browns will look to establish a run against a dominant run defense and relying on a game manager quarterback in Baker Mayfield who is questionable to play against a lockdown secondary.
On the other hand, the Steelers have an offense that is clicking on all cylinders, with most importantly, an offensive line that is playing at a high level. Unfortunately for them, the Browns defense is still ferocious and led by potential Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. The Steelers won’t be able to put up loads of points this week with ease either, so under 51 is the play.
Arizona Cardinals-Dallas Cowboys Under 54.5
This 54.5 total is remarkably high for a game with all sorts of questions attached to it, which is why it is a SportsGrid model five-star pick. The obvious first — Dak Prescott is out for the season after he was injured in Week 5. We don’t know how Andy Dalton will fill in in his first game, but we do know that the once-vaunted Cowboys offensive line is an absolute mess that will allow Chandler Jones and company on Arizona to tee off on Dalton, who falls apart more than most quarterbacks against pressure.
The Cardinals have their own issues in the passing game as Kyler Murray has, by and large, struggled compared to expectations passing this year.
That said, the Cowboys run defense is still Charmin-soft and missing linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Sean Lee. Murray and running back Kenyan Drake should be able to run all over the Cowboys defense. The Cardinals have played a large amount of west coast-style offense, opting for short-area passes to wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Between these considerations and Cowboys, defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s seat getting potentially a little warm (and needing to support Dalton and the offense while they get acclimated), the under 54.5 looks like a solid play.
Cincinnati Bengals-Indianapolis Colts Under 46.5
The five-star pick for this game is in taking the under for the Colts-Bengals tilt. Several reasons jump out here for a lower-scoring than anticipated game that jumps out from the model.
The Colts play at a downright glacial pace, ranking 31st in the league in seconds elapsed/snap. The Colts’ identity is wrapped up in running Jonathan Taylor behind their top-ranked offensive line and making Phil Rivers into a game manager. Rivers was downright awful last week and had to deal with questions from the media about being washed up.
The Bengals defense is bad in general, but missing defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Mike Daniels should allow for Taylor to have a field day. The Bengals offense throws quite a bit but will be facing the top-ranked defense in the NFL by DVOA. Further, the Colts have a vicious pass rush led by Justin Houston and linebackers Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke. Burrow will have a time tough getting anything going against a good Colts defense. Under 46.5 makes sense here.