Our Model’s Favorite Week 8 NFL Player Props
Our Model’s Favorite Week 8 NFL Player Props
We’ve reached the point in the NFL season where some of the best value plays on the player props market aren’t the sexiest names. Injuries create opportunities for guys who many have written off.
This week, the SportsGrid model highlights two players who will be put into big-time roles due to injuries to their respective teams’ stud starters. You may not like betting the likes of Giovani Bernard or Anthony Miller, but they just might be your best path to a successful Week 8.
Let’s see who else makes this list this week:
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill
Coming off a pedestrian performance that was saved by a long touchdown created by A.J. Brown, the SportsGrid model is backing Tannehill to bounce back this week against the Bengals. At FanDuel, his passing yards total is 264.50, but SportsGrid has him projected for 284.18.
Last week against Pittsburgh, Tannehill completed 60% of his passes for 220 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans’ offense showed little sign of life until Tannehill found Brown in stride for a 73-yard score in the third quarter.
Cincinnati is giving up 262.3 passing yards per game this season, and given the Titans’ defensive issues this season; there’s reason to believe this could be a shootout. Tannehill has thrown for more than 300 yards twice in his last four games, both of which were high-scoring wins over the Vikings and Texans.
The Bengals are allowing only 98.9 yards per game on the ground this season, which is the eighth-lowest in the NFL. Expect Tennessee to actively look to get its quarterback going early and often against Cincinnati in Week 8.
Bengals RB Gio Bernard
On the other side of that Titans-Bengals matchup, Tennessee’s struggling rush defense will be happy to see Joe Mixon out again. But Giovani Bernard is one of the SportsGrid model’s favorite plays this week. His FanDuel rushing yards total is 49.50, while SportsGrid projects Bernard for 69.86.
Last week against the Browns, Cincinnati pretty much abandoned the run game in what turned out to be a shootout between Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow, who threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns. Burrow threw 47 times, a total he is unlikely to hit against a Titans defense that is allowing 145.2 rushing yards per game this season.
Obviously, Bernard’s biggest strength is his pass-catching ability. He hasn’t broken more than 3.8 yards per carry since 2017. But he ran for 37 yards last week against the Browns, and it’s reasonable to think that Cincinnati will want to avoid a similar workload for Burrow in back-to-back weeks. Bernard isn’t the flashiest play, but his total is one to watch in Week 8.
Seahawks WR D.K. Metcalf
Mr. Consistency (AKA, D.K. Metcalf) had a slight setback last week while Tyler Lockett went OFF against the Cardinals. SportsGrid’s model likes Metcalf to bounce back this week in a big matchup with the 49ers. FanDuel has Metcalf’s receiving yards total at 72.50, while SportsGrid projects him for 85.67.
Before his two-catch, 23-yard performance in Arizona, Metcalf had at least 92 receiving yards in the Seahawks’ first five games of the season. I’m going to say it’s fair to assume that Lockett will not repeat his 15-catch, 200-yard outing from a week ago and that Metcalf is in store for a big day.
The 49ers are around the middle of the league in passing yards allowed per game, but his production this season cannot be ignored. Expect the second-year stud to get back to his early-season ways of hitting his over, which has been around that 72.50 total all season, at home against the Niners.
Bears WR Anthony Miller
Even with Allen Robinson active for the Bears, Miller has been Chicago’s No. 2 receiving target all year, despite the quarterback.
Miller has been plagued by inconsistency this season, with two middling quarterbacks struggling to find him through seven weeks. Miller’s receiving yards total on FanDuel is a mere 27.50, but SportsGrid’s model projects him for 41.39.
The biggest reason for optimism with Miller is that he has at least three targets in every game this season. That hasn’t necessarily led to great production, but it doesn’t matter whether it’s Foles or Mitchell Trubisky under center — Miller gets looks.
Miller has hit over his 27.50 FanDuel total in three of the Bears’ seven games this season, so it’s not a totally unreasonable number. The Saints allow the ninth-most passing yards per game in the NFL.
Deonte Harris is worth a look with the Saints missing Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, and Marquez Callaway, but Miller seems like the better bet given his big-play potential, something the Saints have not shown much of in 2020.