Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 12
Which Premier League matches offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let’s see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at ouroddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Leeds vs. West Ham
West Ham to win +210
West Ham have been better than Leeds by most metrics early this season, including in the standings, where they are six spots higher backed by their 5W-2D-4L record. The Hammers own a +0.7 expected goal differential — per FBRef — and a +4 actual goal differential.
On the other side, Leeds are 4-2-5 to start the year, and they are lagging behind West Ham with a -4 goal difference and a -1.4 expected goal difference. Leeds have also struggled a bit in recent matches, going 1-1-3 in their last five.
Overall, this match seems to favor West Ham, and yet they are more than 2-1 underdogs in the contest. The Hammers are the better team by a lot of measurements, and they’re easy to like at these odds.
Wolves vs. Aston Villa
Aston Villa to win +220
Wolves are ahead of Aston Villa in the table by two points, but Villa do have two games in hand over Wolves. Villa also own a +7 goal difference, compared to Wolves’ -4 mark. Villa are 5th in the league in expected goal difference, compared to 13th for Wolves.
Aston Villa have lost two games in a row, but they have run into a little bit of bad luck recently. They lost 2-1 against West Ham but outshot the Hammers 16-6, and they lost by the same score to Brighton but outshot them 15-7. You would expect their luck to turn sooner rather than later, and they should stand a good chance to win this game since they are arguably the better team. Villa at +220 is an appealing bet.
Everton vs. Chelsea
Chelsea to win -130
Chelsea have been one of the best teams in the league this season, with a 6-4-1 record putting them in third place in the league. They have been in good form, too, going 4-1-0 in their last five games, including a 3-1 win against Leeds last weekend.
Everton got off to a good start this campaign, and they are still doing well overall at 5-2-4 with a +2 goal differential and +2 expected goal difference. However, the Toffees are 1-1-4 in their last six games.
Chelsea are a legit title contender in this league, and Everton are maybe a mid-table side, at best. Chelsea should win this game and get the full three points.