Shriners Hospitals for Children Open PGA Betting Preview & Analysis
The PGA TOUR will head to Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. This will be the first of two events in Vegas. This is a loaded field on a relatively easy course, which should create plenty of drama for our betting cards.
Let’s dive in.
Event: Shriners Hospitals for Children Open
Course: TPC Summerlin
Course Stats: Par 71 — 7,255 yards
Handicapping The Course
Overall, TPC Summerlin plays as birdie fest. In the last two years, the winners have been -23 (Kevin Na) and -21 (Patrick Cantlay). The greens are massive as golfers hit them at a 72% clip — 7% higher than an average TOUR event, per Fantasy National. Since everyone will be hitting greens in regulation (GIR), Strokes Gained: Approach will be that much more important. Consistently hitting GIR means nothing if you’re leaving yourself with 30-foot birdie putts.
And by looking at DataGolf’s historical event data, this course can be a test in all facets of the game. Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach has driven most of the scoring.
That said, driving distance and accuracy has historically mattered less at this event. Golfers of all skillsets can succeed here. And at some point, the winner will have to run hot with their putter.
Key metrics: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdies or Better Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Par-4 Efficiency.
Horse for the Course
Patrick Cantlay (+1800) is one of the more obvious choices for this section since he’s finished second, second, and first over the last three years. That said, I’ll side with someone with comparable odds and history here in Webb Simpson (+1600) — but Webb is entering this tournament in much better form.
Overall, Webb won this event in 2013, and he hasn’t missed a cut here over the last seven (!!) years. Additionally, he owns three top-eight finishes and five top-20 finishes at this course since 2013.
Webb is in solid form — finishing eighth, 12th, sixth, and third over his four tournaments. More importantly, he ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 10th in Birdies or Better Gained, second in Par-4 Efficiency, and ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 36 rounds.
If/when this turns into a putting contest — Webb can contend.
I’m not sure we can classify Doc Redman as a sleeper given he’s a household name in the betting and DFS space, but when he’s listed at +7000 on FanDuel Sportsbook, he certainly qualifies as one.
The main worry with Redman is if he can make enough putts to win here. However, it should help that he ranks second in Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 36 rounds. And he’s been excellent tee-go-green over his last four tournaments. While he lost -5.3 strokes tee-to-green at the Northern Trust, he gained +4.4 at Sanderson Farms, +7.8 at Safeway, and +10.7 at Wyndham.
At 70-1, Redman is worth our attention.
Hideki Matsuyama is one of the best ball-strikers players in this field. Over his last 36 rounds, he ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach and second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. His issue has always been his putter — which is why he’s struggled to win tournaments.
That said, he has no problems finishing in the top 20. Anytime Matsuyama (+130) is plus-money to finish inside the top 20, he has my attention. Deki tends to be a top-20 machine — with eight top-20 finishes in his 16 events this year. This season, he’s hitting top 20s at a 50% clip, and at +130 odds — the break-even rate is just 43.47%. So, in the long run, this should be a +EV bet.