SportsGrid Contributor Just Baseball

It’s time for some of the best baseball of the year.
The 2025 NCAA Baseball Tournament begins on May 30th, and over the next few weeks, 64 teams will be whittled down to eight. Those eight teams will then travel to Omaha to compete for the College World Series title.
In this article, you’ll find my three favorite picks for Regionals action. For anyone curious about where I obtain my statistics, <a href="https://www.warrennolan.com/baseball/2025/rpi-live" target="_blank" rel="noopener">click here</a> for the strength of schedule and <a href="https://www.collegebaseballinsiders.com/?team_filter=&amp;conference_filter=&amp;team_scope=top_25&amp;sort_by=" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> for the full-season stats.
You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code <a href="https://promo.nj.betmgm.com/en/promo/geolocator?orh=promo.betmgm.com&amp;wm=7106521h" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JUSTBASEBALL</a> for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.
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<h2 id="h-tallahassee-regional" class="wp-block-heading">Tallahassee Regional</h2>
We are getting a very reasonable price on the favorite to win their home regional due to their competition. Northeastern is getting plenty of buzz due to their elite pitching staff and 48-9 record, and Mississippi State is an established SEC team coming off an excellent season (34-21). However, I believe both of Florida State’s main competitors are overrated, so I’m riding with the better team at home to move on.
Northeastern has the second-best odds to advance, but I think the hype has gone too far; I would have Mississippi State much closer to them than the lines indicate. I do understand the excitement, but I have my doubts when they play better competition.
While they have won 27 straight games heading into the tournament, it hasn’t been against robust competition. They rank 168th in strength of schedule, one of the easiest marks in the entire tournament. Their 23-1 record at home is impressive, but they won’t have any home games here. They only played five Q1 games all season and went 2-3.
While they rank number one in ERA and WHIP nationally, they rank 18th in xFIP and 16th in SIERA, placing them in the same category as both Florida State and Mississippi State.
I think Mississippi State takes care of Northeastern and moves on to face FSU, but I think their run stops there. While their overall stats are great, they have failed to win when it matters.
They went 8-17 in Q1 games and 3-3 in Q2 games. They feasted on the easiest part of their schedule, going 23-1 in Q3 and Q4 matchups. They only went 15-15 in the SEC and went 9-9 on the road. They also suffered a shutout loss in the first game of the SEC tournament, falling 9-0 to Texas A&amp;M.
Mississippi State has a well-balanced team, something that Northeastern lacks. Underlying metrics, such as xFIP and SIERA, favor Mississippi State’s pitching over Northeastern’s, which is why, ultimately, I think it will be a battle between the SEC and ACC to advance. While I usually lean towards the SEC, Florida State’s rotation and offensive upside should ultimately prevail.
Only a few teams can replicate the power that Florida State has on the mound. Jamie Arnold could go number one overall in this draft and is arguably the best player in this entire tournament. They also have Joey Volini and Wes Mendes, who form one of the best back-end duos in any starting rotation. The staff as a whole ranks 18th in SIERA and boasts one of the best K-BB ratios (15.1%) in the country.
The best offense in this region belongs to Florida State, which ranks ninth in batting average and 17th in OPS nationally, led by one of the best hitters in college baseball, Alex Lodise. He’s hitting .415 with 17 home runs while getting on base at a .477 clip, giving Florida State a game-changer in the middle of the lineup.
I think people are sleeping on how good this Florida State offense is. Myles Bailey and Max Williams have a stupid amount of pop, both slugging over .600 this season with an OPS over 1.000.
Florida State also had the hardest strength of schedule, ranking 24th in the country. They went 13-10 in their Q1 wins and 4-3 in Q2. They also mopped the floor with their easiest matchups and rose to the occasion against their better competition. The data backs the Seminoles; they have plenty of power to change the game with one swing, and the top-end pitching that can stifle any offense with strikeout stuff.
All in all, both of Florida State’s opponents have a great pitching staff, but I trust FSU’s arms more. Knowing FSU has the best offense of the trio, combined with home field advantage, they are the pick to move on up to -135. I am risking 0.75 units on Florida State to advance.
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<h2 id="h-oxford-regional" class="wp-block-heading">Oxford Regional</h2>
Ole Miss has been through the ringer this season, mowing through the fifth most challenging schedule of any team in the country. They were able to post a positive record in the SEC and finished the season with 40 wins.
That’s tough to do when considering their competition, and when they faced the best teams in the country, they went 19-15. They were also a force to be reckoned with at home, going 25-8. While the competition they’ll face will be challenging, they are a battle-tested unit that should be up to the task in Oxford, Mississippi.
When comparing all these teams side by side, they all appear pretty similar. Ole Miss has the superior pitching staff, sitting in the top ten in both xFIP and SIERA, and Georgia Tech has a prolific offense, and Western Kentucky is the most balanced when strictly looking at the numbers.
However, context is needed, as Western Kentucky’s schedule has been elementary, and while Georgia Tech’s offense is prolific, their defense leaves a lot to be desired.
Ole Miss has an underrated pitching staff. The talent is undeniable, and their ability to rack up strikeouts is among the elite. They have the tenth-best strikeout rate in college baseball at an absurd 27.1%. The bullpen is also a fantastic unit, so there isn’t as much pressure on the starters. It’s a staff with elite stuff throughout.
Putting up those numbers in the SEC, combined with the fifth-toughest schedule in the nation, has me excited about what Ole Miss can do in this tournament.
Ole Miss rakes. They put up a 142 wRC+ as an offense this season, ranking 31st. Their big calling card is their ability to slug, knocking 105 home runs, the tenth most of any team. Mitchell Sanford is the man to watch, as he’s hitting over .300 with an OPS near 1.000 with 15 home runs.
The lineup runs deep, as they have six players with double-digit home runs. Austin Fawley has some swing and miss concerns, but if he gets hold of one, watch out. The young catcher is slugging over .600 this year and leads the squad with 17 home runs.
Georgia Tech will be competitive because they can hit anyone at any time, and they’ve performed against high-quality opponents. However, the pitching staff loses me. They rank 75th in xFIP and 51st in SIERA. I will give them credit, they have a plethora of solid arms, but they don’t have the top-end stuff that Ole Miss has.
Western Kentucky has been fantastic all season, and their numbers across the board are exceptional. However, it’s hard for me to fully buy in, considering they rank 185th in strength of schedule. They’ve played eight Q1 games, going just 3-5. They are an enjoyable team, and in a different bracket, I think they can make some noise, but not in Oxford.
Overall, Ole Miss has a blend of top-end pitching talent, combined with multiple sluggers who can change the game with one swing. Considering how battle-tested they are and the price we are being offered, I’m taking the SEC team to move on. I am risking 0.5 units on Ole Miss to advance.
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<h2 id="h-los-angeles-regional" class="wp-block-heading">Los Angeles Regional</h2>
My last pick is a longshot. It stems from my mistrust of the number one seed, the UCLA Bruins, so I decided to take a chance on the upside of Arizona State.
UCLA played ten Q1 games and went 3-7. They rank 118th in xFIP and 91st in SIERA as a pitching staff, and if you’ve read my other writeups, I put a lot of emphasis on pitching. The lineup is led by Roch Chowlosky, who has been incredible this year; however, the offense is often too reliant on him, and in a short series, that could come back to bite them.
Irvine rakes, but their pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired as well. They rank inside the top 60 in most metrics, but barely. They rank 53rd in ERA, 56th in WHIP, 47th in xFIP, 38th in SIERA, 46th in K-BB, and 55th in FIP. Irvine also didn’t have a tough schedule, ranking 61st in SOS.
The Sun Devils can pitch. They have the seventh highest strikeout rate and the tenth highest K-BB ratio in the nation. While the ERA and WHIP don’t scream “elite,” the underlying metrics love this staff. They rank 10th in xFIP and 12th in SIERA.
Now, college baseball fans likely cringe as I gush about their pitching, because ASU has been highly inconsistent on the mound. It’s either incredible or horrible, and a little in between.
That’s why I like leaping with them. It’s an upside play on their pitching being able to string together a few good starts, and their offense coming to play. They put the ball in play constantly, posting the 11th-best batting average (.316) in the nation with one of the lowest strikeout rates (15.2%). It’s consistent, and it’s powerful, as they have posted a .520 SLG as a team with 84 home runs.
With Arizona State, I get an offense that’s always putting the ball in play, and a pitching staff whose best attribute is limiting the number of balls in play. Arizona State is volatile, but in a wide-open region, +400 is worth the price, and I would play them down to +325. I am risking 0.25 Units on Arizona State to advance.
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The road to Omaha begins now.
The 2025 NCAA Baseball Tournament kicks off May 30, launching a month-long sprint that will trim 64 hopefuls down to eight elite programs vying for college baseball’s most coveted prize in Omaha. It’s the most exciting stretch of the season—and an opportunity to capitalize on matchups through sharp, informed bets.
Here are my three favorite picks for this weekend’s Regional action, backed by detailed statistical analysis and years of experience tracking the college game.
Thanks to <a href="https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb-draft/college-baseball-week-6-roundup/">Just Baseball</a> for the stats, analysis and insights for this slideshow article.

NCAA Baseball Tournament Preview

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Florida State is being undervalued as the host favorite due to inflated narratives surrounding Northeastern and Mississippi State—two programs that, while solid, simply don’t have the same complete profile as the Seminoles.
Northeastern boasts gaudy numbers (48-9) and a dominant pitching staff on the surface. But a closer look reveals concerns. Their No. 168 strength of schedule is one of the softest in the field, and they’ve only played five Q1 games, going 2-3. Their elite national ERA and WHIP rankings are misleading; advanced indicators like xFIP (18th) and SIERA (16th) place them in the same statistical tier as FSU and Mississippi State.
Mississippi State, while SEC-tested, has struggled in high-leverage situations. They finished 8-17 in Q1 games and were inconsistent overall, including a flat 9-9 mark on the road and a 9-0 opening-round SEC Tournament loss to Texas A&amp;M. They are a well-balanced team on paper, but their results don’t match the hype.
FSU, meanwhile, brings elite power and a top-end rotation. Southpaw Jamie Arnold could be the No. 1 overall pick and headlines a staff that also features Joey Volini and Wes Mendes—both capable of locking down games. The staff ranks 18th in SIERA and boasts a dominant 15.1% K-BB rate.
Offensively, this team is loaded. Alex Lodise (.415 AVG, 17 HR, .477 OBP) is one of the most dangerous hitters in the nation, and he’s supported by mashers Myles Bailey and Max Williams, each with slugging marks north of .600. FSU ranks 9th nationally in batting average and 17th in OPS.
They also played the 24th-hardest schedule, showing the ability to beat both top-tier and mid-level competition. With home field, the region’s best offense, and a rotation stacked with swing-and-miss stuff, the Seminoles are built to punch their ticket to the Supers.

Tallahassee Regional: Florida State to Advance (-135, Risk 0.75u)

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Ole Miss enters the tournament as one of the most battle-tested programs in the country, surviving the fifth-hardest schedule and notching 40 wins while playing .500 ball in the SEC.
When evaluating regionals, I focus on context. Western Kentucky’s stats pop—but they rank 185th in strength of schedule. Georgia Tech can rake but owns one of the weaker pitching profiles in the field, ranking 75th in xFIP and 51st in SIERA.
Ole Miss, on the other hand, is built for postseason success. Their pitching staff ranks top 10 in both xFIP and SIERA, and they sport a 27.1% strikeout rate, 10th-best nationally. This isn’t just a staff that eats innings—it misses bats.
The offense isn’t far behind. With a 142 wRC+, the Rebels have one of the most efficient and powerful lineups in the country. They’ve slugged 105 home runs (10th nationally), with Mitchell Sanford and Austin Fawley leading the way. Fawley, in particular, is a game-changer, slugging over .600 and pacing the team with 17 bombs.
Factor in their 25-8 home record, proven ability to handle top-tier competition (19-15 vs top teams), and elite bullpen depth, and you have a recipe for a deep postseason run. Don’t overthink this one—the Rebels are the pick to emerge from Oxford.

Oxford Regional: Ole Miss to Advance (+EV, Risk 0.5u)

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This is a classic upside play.
UCLA, the No. 1 seed, is vulnerable. They’ve played just ten Q1 games (3-7) and sit outside the top 90 in SIERA and xFIP—a red flag. Offensively, they rely too heavily on Roch Chowlosky, and I don’t trust this pitching staff in a short series format.
UC Irvine can swing it, but their pitching metrics don’t impress: 53rd in ERA, 56th in WHIP, 47th in xFIP. They also rank just 61st in strength of schedule.
That brings us to Arizona State, a team that’s maddeningly inconsistent—but dangerously explosive. They boast the 7th-best strikeout rate and 10th-best K-BB ratio in the nation, backed by top-12 rankings in xFIP and SIERA. Their command can disappear, but when they’re locked in, few staffs can match their ceiling.
Offensively, ASU thrives on contact and power. They post a .316 team average (11th nationally), strike out just 15.2% of the time, and rank 24th in slugging (.520) with 84 home runs. That combination—high-contact, low-K, with pop—is rare.
In a wide-open regional where the top seed is beatable and the margins are thin, ASU’s upside warrants a shot. I like them at +400 and would play them down to +325.

Los Angeles Regional: Arizona State to Advance (+400, Risk 0.25u)

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The NCAA Tournament is all about talent, pressure, and volatility. Florida State is the most complete team in its regional. Ole Miss has faced the gauntlet and emerged tougher for it. And Arizona State is built to break brackets. That’s the kind of blend I look for in June baseball.
The post <a href="https://www.justbaseball.com/betting/2025-college-world-series-picks-ncaa-baseball-tournament-best-bets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2025 College World Series Picks, NCAA Baseball Tournament Best Bets</a> appeared first on <a href="https://www.justbaseball.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Just Baseball</a>.

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It’s time for some of the best baseball of the year. The 2025 NCAA Baseball Tournament begins on May 30th, and over the next few weeks, 64 teams will be whittled down to eight. Those eight teams will then travel to Omaha to compete for the College World Series title. In this article, you’ll find […]
The post 2025 College World Series Picks, NCAA Baseball Tournament Best Bets appeared first on Just Baseball.

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