Palmetto Championship PGA Betting Preview: Time for Tommy Fleetwood to Win?
Tournament and Course Overview
We are just one week away from the U.S. Open, and the PGA TOUR makes a quick stop in Ridgeland, SC, for the inaugural installment of the Palmetto Championship at Congaree Golf Club. Other than a few big names at the top (DJ, Koepka, Hatton), this field is like an alternative field event as most of the lads have headed west to Torrey Pines to prep for the third major of 2021.
Also, with U.S. Open sectional qualifying having been completed yesterday, a few more have withdrawn already with a potential of a few others to join, so pay close attention to PGA TOUR updates before playing a bet or filling out a DFS lineup.
Obviously, there is no course history to reference at Congaree C.C., but with a little research, we can see that it is a long track – the par 71 Tom Fazio designed tips out at lengthy 7,655 yards and is lined with many waste/hazard areas.
However, this course won’t only favor the bombers as it is handicapped to be a course similar to Kiawah Island, where the ball should run out a great deal. A skill set that is successful at courses like those for the Euro tournaments played in Saudi Arabia should comp out quite well this week.
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A forgotten soul in the current day and age of golf that has quietly played his best golf of the past 3-4 years of late is Jason Dufner (+16000). Duf Daddy has made four of his past five cuts and finished a respectable T37 at The Memorial this past weekend. He has gained over seven strokes tee-to-green in three of those five tournaments, with the majority of that coming from his stellar iron play. He has always been weak in the chipping and putting department, but it is encouraging to see that he has been near field average in both over the past month. I think it is a good time to take a stab on him for a top 20 and sprinkle a minute amount on his lofty outright number as he is a guy who has won before.
A recent DFS darling, Canadian Vincent Whaley (+12000), has ripped off nine straight made cuts and has finished inside the top 30 in seven of those events. He gets a much weaker field this week than at most all those recent tournaments, so I think he is a sure-fire play in all formats this week. I especially like the 14-1 price on his top 10 exotic.
Once a WGC and Major entrant regular, Rafa Cabrera Bello (+8500) has fallen off the grid over the past two seasons. He has put together three straight solid outings, gaining strokes in four of the five major categories in each tournament. RCB should be another one to benefit from a weaker field here, and he also has had success in Euro Tour events with courses like Congaree C.C.
My pick at the top of the board is none other than Tommy Fleetwood (+2200). Although he burned us at the PGA Championship last month, and a victory on U.S. soil has eluded him thus far in his career, I am going to lean into the Middle East angle with him as he has gotten it done over there on more than one occasion in the past. Furthermore, he is a top five player in this field any way you stack it up, so don’t be surprised if he is on top of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.
Jason Dufner Top 20 (+490)
Jason Dufner Outright (+16000)
Vincent Whaley Top 10 (+1400)
Rafa Cabrera Bello Top 10 (+1100)
Rafa Cabrera Bello Outright (+8500)
Tommy Fleetwood Outright (+2200)