2025 Genesis Scottish Open Best Bets: PGA Picks, Predictions and Tournament Outlook

The Scottish Open returns to The Renaissance Club, where this classic links-style design demands creativity and resilience. With windswept fairways, rugged bunkers, and unpredictable seaside gusts, players must balance distance with precision if they want to contend. From Rory McIlroy’s dominant links track record to Tommy Fleetwood’s accuracy and Xander Schauffele’s knack for thriving in harsh coastal conditions, this year’s event sets up perfectly for value picks and sharp outright bets.

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The Renaissance Club Course Outlook for the Scottish Open

This week’s Scottish Open returns to one of modern golf’s more intriguing layouts — a Tom Doak creation that’s been testing players since 2008. Unlike the manicured parkland setups that dominate much of the PGA Tour, this coastal track embraces its natural ruggedness, featuring windswept fairways, uneven lies, and ample fescue and pot bunkers to keep everyone honest.

Measuring 7,237 yards as a par 70, the course tempts aggressive shot-making but punishes anything off-line with steep slopes and gnarly rough. While water hazards are minimal, the swirling seaside gusts are anything but predictable. Despite its wild features, the venue ranked as the 29th easiest on Tour last year, yielding a sub-par scoring average of 68.75 — proof that precision and creativity can still conquer the elements when executed well.

Rory McIlroy Win Only +850

Rory McIlroy is one of the best links players in golf. The North Irishman puts together the perfect mix of strength off the tee with the ability to adapt to changing conditions, qualities that are an ideal fit for golf in Scotland.

McIlroy ranks second in driving distance this year, crushing the ball an average of 320.6 yards per tee shot with the big club. Rory punishes the opposition, picking up 0.703 strokes gained off the tee, which has him fourth among all golfers in 2025. The 2023 Scottish Open winner isn’t super accurate off the tee, but his distance makes up for it, especially on a course like this that rewards power over precision.

Another skill that comes in handy at the Renaissance is the approach game. McIlroy ranks 80th in strokes gained: green to tee at 0.100 and 56th inside of 200 yards. Once he gets to the dance floor, Rory has been lethal with the putter this season. McIlroy ranks seventh in putting average at 1.707, 27th in putts per round (28.40), and fifth in strokes gained: putting (0.647).

McIlroy has three wins on Tour this season to go along with six top ten and 10 top 25 finishes. Second in the FedEx Cup race, Rory is coming in off a T-6 finish at the Travelers Championship in late June, skipping out on the Rocket Classic and last week’s John Deere.

The 29-time Tour winner shot a 15-under here in 2023 to capture his first and only Scottish Open title. A year later, Rory almost mimicked his 2023 performance with a -14 showing, although this time it was only good enough for fourth place. 

Rory comes into this one well-rested and very confident in his ability to get it done on this course. I like for McIlroy to hang around all weekend and contend for another title.

Tommy Fleetwood Top Englishman +350

Another golfer who is no stranger to links-style play is Tommy Fleetwood. Growing up in Southport, England, Fleetwood thrived as an amateur, playing courses similar to those of the Renaissance, and has carried that experience into his professional career. Since 2017, the 34-year-old has been better than 2.25 strokes under par on links courses. Fleetwood has hit better than 76% of greens on this course, the best mark on Tour.

Fleetwood’s game is more accurate than powerful off the tee, but with a 64.10% rate of hitting fairways, which ranks him 37th, it makes up for an average tee shot under 300 yards. The 15-year pro makes it work out of the box, ranking 51st in strokes gained off the tee (0.228). Once he hits the fairways, Fleetwood sits eighth in strokes gained: approach to green (0.622), and is 80th hitting from inside 200 yards.

Fleetwood is also effective with the smallest club in his bag, ranking 33rd in strokes gained via the putter at 0.264. He’s also 24th in putting average (1.729), 23rd in putts per round (28.37), and 29th in one-putt percentage (42.08%).

The eight-time International winner is still looking for his first Tour win, but was a runner-up in his last tournament, the Travelers Championship. Fleetwood has also put together five top 10 and 11 top 25 finishes this season.

While he stumbled to a 34th-place finish last year, Fleetwood has played well at this course. He finished fourth in 2022 and sixth in 2023 with a nine-under showing.

With his biggest competition coming from Matt Fitzpatrick in this English grouping, I like Fleetwood as the clear best golfer of this bunch. I considered taking him to finish in the top 10 at +200, but we get more value by picking him as the top Englishman this weekend.

Xander Schauffele Top 10 Finish (Including Ties) +175

While Xander Schauffele hasn’t really been himself all season, the Renaissance is the type of course where he can put it all together. Schauffele sits in the top 10 in total strokes gained on these style courses and looks to continue his European success.

Schauffele won the Scottish Open in 2022 after shooting a seven-under par on this course. He’s made the cut in all three appearances on this course and is coming off a T-15 finish last year.

The nine-time Tour winner has the power game to keep up this weekend, averaging 308.4 yards per drive, which puts him 35th. While his distance is impressive, it is with the irons that Schauffele makes up the most ground. The 31-year-old sits 20th in strokes gained: approach to green (0.520) and 43rd in approaches inside 200 yards. 

While Schauffele has struggled to find consistency in 2025, with just one top-10 finish coming at the Masters, he is automatic in making the cut. The San Diego State alum has made all 11 cuts this season, extending his streak to a mind-blowing 67 straight tournaments. 

With course play on Saturday and Sunday almost a certainty, I like Schauffele to find his game in the UK, just as he did last year when he won the British Open.