Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup?
Live prediction market probabilities based on Kalshi and Polymarket pricing, updated daily.
đ World Cup 2026 Market Brief
Current odds imply a conviction-led market, favoring Spain, England and France at Spain (17%), England (13%), France (12%) respectively. England and France have faced relative pressure over the past 30 days, with market share shifting toward competing contenders. Spain has maintained steady positioning over the past 30 days, reflecting balanced sentiment without strong directional conviction. Early tournament markets remain in flux as sharp bettors continue to establish positions ahead of kickoff.
Biggest Market Movers (30 days)
Top Gainers
Market Stability Notice
No World Cup teams have gained implied probability over the past 30 days.
Top Decliners
Explore Country-Level World Cup Odds
Spain
17%
England
13%
France
12%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
10%
Portugal
8%
Germany
7%
Netherlands
4%
Norway
4%
Belgium
3%
United States
3%
Italy
3%
Uruguay
2%
Colombia
2%
Japan
2%
Croatia
2%
Mexico
2%
Morocco
2%
How to Interpret World Cup Winner Markets
Early prediction markets tend to be more volatile and less accurate than markets closer to the tournament. However, they still aggregate valuable information about team strength, squad depth, and early tournament expectations. Accuracy typically improves as the World Cup approaches and more information becomes available.
Major odds movements are typically driven by injury news affecting key players, qualification results, friendly match performances, manager changes, and breaking news about squad availability. Large shifts in market participation can also move prices quickly.
Markets typically stabilize in the 2â3 months before the tournament begins, once final squads are announced and the group stage draw is complete. Pre-tournament friendlies and final roster decisions provide the last major information inputs before kickoff.
Prediction markets reflect real-time market sentiment through participant trading, while sportsbooks incorporate margins and manage risk exposure when setting odds. As a result, prediction markets often react more quickly to new information and shifts in public expectations than traditional sportsbook pricing.