PGA Betting Guide for the Houston Open
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below, we will cover the best bets for the Houston Open based on current form, course fit, and — of course — the value of their odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
We arrive at a new course this week with very little insight into how a municipal course will handle Tour pros in its first run. Memorial Park Golf Course is plenty long and we only just received word on Tuesday that it will actually play to a par 70 rather than a 72, with 2 big-time birdie opportunities now flipping to potentially tough pars.
With a top-heavy board, we have to make some decisions about the card as a whole. We can go with the class of the field and place some larger wagers on the big names, or spread our plays around within the mid-range and target quality finishing position prices to round out our plays.
For more info on Memorial Park Golf Course, along with this week’s key stats and comparable courses, check out the course primer.
At the Top
Brooks Koepka (+2000) – Koepka had a hand in the redesign completed by Tom Doak on Memorial Park in order to get it ready for PGA Tour players. With this being most of the field’s first time at the track we have to give Koepka a massive leg up. We know the high-end talent is enough to blow out just about any field when he’s on his game, but the question with Koepka is (always) motivation and (more recently) health. Koepka got a few rounds under his belt at Shadow Creek a few weeks back, and with Augusta looming, a strong performance this week will put him right back in the mix near the top of the market. Getting him at 20/1 is always going to catch our eye.
Tony Finau (+2200) – Finau should figure into the card next week at Augusta as well, so why not get in a week early and pick him up here at still decent odds compared to the field and course? Finau’s game is perfect for Memorial Park — long hitter, all-around play for a diverse set of holes, first in strokes gained on par 5s over his last 50 rounds and fourth in proximity gained from over 200 yards, according to Fantasy National Golf Club. There are five par 5s that will lead to longer approach shots, and three of the par 3s are over 200 yards long. Finau is also one of the top birdie-makers in the field, ranking fourth in birdies or better gained over the same sample.
Si Woo Kim (+4000) – After years of being a “worst or first” type golfer, Si Woo has been remarkably consistent these past few months, with just a single missed cut in his last 13 events. He has six top-20s in that span, highlighted by a T3 at the Wyndham Championship and a T8 at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. When his irons are firing he can contend against even the strongest of fields, and on muni greens, he should be able to avoid the disastrous putting rounds that can undermine him.
Doc Redman (+4500) – Redman has three top 10s in his last six events, including a T4 last week in Bermuda. He has the pedigree as a former U.S. Amateur champion and the ball-striking prowess to eventually breakthrough with a PGA win. When he does, it will be in a field like this one where only a handful of golfers are demonstrably more talented than him. Until he bangs down that door we have to consider the hedge with a Top 10 Finish (+430) in the event he plays well but falls short.
Shane Lowry (+7500) – Lowry comes off at a huge number for a golfer with a major championship on his recent resume and plenty of experience in windy conditions. He has the ability to excel in either approach or scrambling and one of the few golfers in the field that has a diverse enough skillset to win multiple ways. Lowry would also love to get a solid finish under his belt heading into Augusta, as he has just one top 10 on the PGA or European Tour since his Open Championship win in July 2019. That’s why he’s coming off at this number, and we get to take advantage.