PGA TOUR AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Open Betting Picks & Analysis
TOURNAMENT AND COURSE OVERVIEW
The 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM will look a bit different this year, as the amateur component has been removed, the cut moved to the end of day two instead of day three, and dropped Monterey Peninsula from the course rotation. During the first two rounds, each golfer will play Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill once, after which there will be a traditional cut. Pebble Beach will host the final two rounds.
The biggest protection for Pebble Beach isn’t the length (it is one of the shorter courses on tour) but rather the small greens that can put an added emphasis on around-the-green play and putting. This will be particularly important if the wind forecast holds as the coastal course is exposed to the elements more than the protected Spyglass Hill. Savvy punters and fantasy golfers will monitor this closely as it relates to first-round leader markets and Showdown contests, where Spyglass Hill starters could present value if conditions are windy.
Dustin Johnson was a surprise WD from the event after a victory at last week’s Saudi Invitational. DJ was the dominant favorite at this event, so his WD has sent a ripple effect through the betting markets and opened up a lot of opportunities. While bettors scrambled to bet quickly before the odds could shift, sportsbooks scrambled to update their lines. While I often see more value in betting top-20 markets, this week, we see the outright market ripe with bettable numbers, including a nice mix of top end options and deep longshots.
At the top end, both Patrick Cantlay and Jason Day still offer value despite their repricing. Cantlay is now the tournament favorite, and he’s ranked 6th in the world by DataGolf. Over the last six months, Cantlay ranks inside the top 5 in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — while also having a top 25 ranking in Strokes Gained: Putting. At +750, our projections still see a smidge of value, and anytime we can back a favorite with positive expected value, we are willing to pull the trigger.
While Day has missed two cuts to start this 2021 season, he’ll be playing on a track that rewards his greatest strength — short game — while also penalizing lack of driving accuracy less than the average tour course. Day has gained +0.51 strokes better than his personal baseline over his career at Pebble and should be able to contend. As both Brooks Koepka and Jordan Spieth showed last week, long-term class matters as much as short-term form, so don’t be scared off of Day and Rickie Fowler in what is now an extremely weak field.
THE BETTING CARD
All prices through FanDuel Sportsbook.
Patrick Cantlay +750
Jason Day +2100
Cameron Tringale +4200
Ricke Fowler +4800
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Denny McCarthy +20000