PGA TOUR Valspar Championship Betting Guide
Tournament and Course Overview
The PGA TOUR is back in Florida for the last time this season for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, FL (Greater Tampa Area). Yours truly will be on the grounds this weekend which always adds a little excitement when writing these articles.
This 7,340-yard, par-71 layout that includes the finishing “Snake Pit,” comprised of holes 16-18, favors those who keep the ball in the short stuff off the tee and who flush their mid to long irons consistently for all days.
Paul Casey will look to etch his name on a list of only 10 men since WW2 to successfully defend a tournament title twice after winning here in 2018 and 2019.
The model I used for my selections this week includes an equal distribution of five categories over the previous 50 rounds for each player in the field. Those were: Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda Greens, Proximity of shots 200+ yards on firm greens, Bogey Avoidance on difficult courses, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach.
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One name flying under the radar this week is Lanto Griffin (+13000). Griffin was a weekend regular atop the PGA TOUR leaderboard late last year, and although he has not been in outright contention of late, he has still made the cut in six of his last seven events, finishing inside the top 35 in each of those. A closer look at his stats shows us that his tee and iron game has been just as strong, if not stronger, than in late 2020. It is his around the green play and putting keeping him from more top-10 finishes. I think this week offers him a great chance to get back in the thick of things on Sunday. Play his exotics and a small dabble on the outright.
The name sitting atop my mixed condition model is another forgotten tour staple who has started to turn it around of late – Charley Hoffman (+4700). The first-round leader darling has really gotten all facets of his game back to normal after a brutal 2020 season. He comes in here riding seven consecutive made cuts, including three top 10s and a solo second-place to Jordan Spieth at the Texas Open last month. Chuck may be a little chalky this week, but he offers the best value outside of the top tier of players.
I will be buying the slight dip in outright price in relation to the field on Tyrrell Hatton (+2700) at Valspar. The Englishmen is bred for difficult courses, with his lone tour win coming in Florida at a tough track last year at the API. Hatton has admittedly struggled with his normally reliant flat stick of late, but we all know that is the facet of the game that offers the most variance. His tee ball and approach numbers are where they normally are, and if he can buck the trend of recent Thursday struggles (104th in first-round scoring average this season), I expect him to be in a position to take this tournament down come Sunday.
Lanto Griffin Top 20 (+360)
Lanto Griffin Outright (+13000)
Charley Hoffman Top 10 (+600)
Charley Hoffman Outright (+4700)
Tyrell Hatton Outright (+2700)