UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz Preview & Best Bets

A big-name welterweight fight headlines UFC 279 as Nate Diaz returns to take on Khamzat Chimaev.

UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz Preview & Best Bets

  • Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: T-Mobile Arena – Paradise, Nevada | Broadcast: PPV

Last Chance For The Wildman

Johnny Walker began his UFC career with a lot of hype, finishing his first three fights for the organization in spectacular fashion. Since then, Walker has lost four of his last five bouts, a knockout of Ryan Spann being his only win over that stretch. Ion Cutelaba hasn’t faired much better, with one win, one draw, and three losses in his past five fights.

Cutelaba will enter as the favorite at -196, but Walker will have a puncher’s chance. Walker is a wild all-or-nothing fighter, so taking a flyer on him to win by KO/TKO at +260 isn’t the worst idea.

If you want to roll the dice, you can take Walker to win in Round 1 at +430.

End Of The Road For El Cucuy?

In 2019, Tony Ferguson was arguably the best lightweight in the world and, at the very least, the second best. However, circumstance robbed Ferguson (and us) of a proper UFC title fight.

However, since then, Ferguson has dropped four straight, losing to Justin Gaethje for the interim Lightweight Championship, Charles Oliveira (the best lightweight in the world), an underrated Beneil Dariush, and top-ranked Michael Chandler.

On the other side of the cage will be Li Jingliang, who is 11-5 in his 16 UFC contests. This fight will be at welterweight, a weight class Ferguson hasn’t fought at since the Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale in 2011. Ferguson will be an inch shorter but has a five-inch reach advantage.

There is a real chance that Ferguson could lock on a D’Arce choke and pull off a submission finish, paying at +600.

Welterweight Main Event

  • Khamzat Chimaev vs. Nate Diaz Odds
  • Odds to Win: Chimaev -1200 | Diaz +700
  • How Will Fight End: KO/TKO/DQ -170
  • Submission +200 | Decision +600
  • Will the fight go the distance? Yes +460 | No -800

The Diaz-brother hype will bring a bunch of eyes to this fight as Nate Diaz continues to ride the fame of his Conor McGregor bouts from 2016. Unfortunately for Diaz, that’s six years ago (six!). Diaz has fought three times since then, losing two.

Khamzat Chimaev has finished every fighter that has stood across from him, save for Gilbert Burns. Chimaev will be the larger of the two, having fought at both middleweight and welterweight. Meanwhile, most of Diaz’s success has been at lightweight, as he’s struggled at welterweight.

Chimaev will win this fight, most likely by a finish. It’s unlikely he’ll submit Diaz, so the best odds we can get with Chimaev is by KO/TKO at -135.

UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Diaz Picks

  • Johnny Walker by KO/TKO (+260)
  • Tony Ferguson by submission (+600)
  • Khamzat Chimaev by KO/TKO (-135)