UFC Baku: Hill vs Rountree Jr. | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A light heavyweight fight headlines UFC Baku as former champion and No. 4-ranked Jamahal “Sweet Dreams" Hill takes on Khalil “The War Horse" Rountree Jr.
- Arena: Baku Crystal Hall
- Location: Baku, Azerbaijan
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Date: June 20, 2025
- Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
UFC Baku: Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev
No. 5-ranked heavyweight Curtis Blaydes faces Rizan Kuniev. Blaydes is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinal, but has never dropped back-to-back bouts. Kuniev is riding an 11-fight unbeaten streak, but is making his UFC debut.
Both men are six feet four inches tall, but Blaydes has a four-inch reach advantage. Kuniev will have the power edge, dropping opponents 0.94 times per 15 minutes. He also lands 2.28 more significant strikes per minute and absorbs 0.66 fewer. Blaydes is one of the best wrestlers at the heavyweight level, landing 5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes. However, Kuniev has a 100 percent takedown defense rate.
If the line was more generous, there might be an opportunity to bet the upset, but Blaydes is a massive challenge for a UFC newcomer to overcome.
💰 Best Bet: Blaydes to win -260
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UFC Baku: Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes
No. 11-ranked lightweight Rafael Fiziev takes on Ignacio Bahamondes. Fiziev has lost three straight, but one was to Mateusz Gamrot and the other two to Justin Gaethje. Bahamondes is on a three-fight win streak, winning all three by finish (2 KO/TKO, 1 Submission).
Bahamondes is a massive seven inches taller and possesses a four-inch reach advantage. He could also have the one-punch power edge, dropping opponents 0.59 times more per 15 minutes. Bahamondes lands 2.24 more significant strikes per minute, and absorbs 0.59 fewer. Grappling shouldn’t be a factor in this fight, but Fiziev has a slight advantage.
Fiziev has been in the cage with a much higher level of opponent, but I think Bahamondes’s size and activity will be too much for him to contend with.
💰 Best Bet: Bahamondes to win -124
UFC Baku: Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree Jr.
- Odds to Win: Hill -110 | Rountree Jr. -110
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -260 | Submission +1200 | Decision +240
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +250 | No -360
Jamahal Hill will look to rebound against Khalil Rountree Jr., who is also looking to get back into the win column. Hill followed losing his UFC title by getting knocked out by Jiri Prochazka. Rountree is coming off challenging for the UFC championship, a fight in which he took a beating.
Hill is three inches taller and has a 2.5-inch reach advantage. Rountree will have the power edge, dropping opponents a whopping 1.42 times per 15 minutes. However, Hill is the more active striker, landing 7.05 significant strikes per minute to Rountree’s 3.73. Grappling shouldn’t come into play, but Rountree has suspect takedown defense, so that could be an outside factor to consider.
Hill is an awkward striker, but he’s obviously found success in the UFC. Still, Rountree has shown he can take a beating and has massive power.
💰 Best Bet: Rountree to win -110
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